"I see houses of cards ready to collapse."
There are vast swathes of the country that haven't seen anything near 10% appreciation. Most of these areas have fairly decent economic conditions, too, such as where I am, Greensboro, NC. We've been muddling along with 3% or so a year since the late 90s, with only a slight jump to a projected 7% for the year for 2005. There's no bubble to burst here, because appreciation has been below average for the duration of all this cheap money. We were doing fairly well during the mid-late 90s with rates around 8%, so I just don't see the end of the real estate world due to that. This is true for just about all of so-called "Red State" America, other than Florida, and some coastal areas fueled by cash out refi money flowing into beachfront vacation homes.
When you live in an area with fairly anemic real estate inflation, while the rest of the country is percolating along at double digit raises, then it speaks to the wages being paid in that economy. Rising interest rates will mean that these lower income people will be even LESS able to afford the prices you have already. I agree, the amplitude of the shock is greatest at the center, but the ripples spread out eventually.
Let's not forget the "paper wealth" factor. Whether we're talking about values of tech stock portfolios, or home values, when people perceive themselves as suffering a loss, they spend less on everything. That affects essentially every segment of the economy. I just hope we can snap out of it by late 2007, or be prepared for President Rodham.