OK, I bet twelve days. (The amount of time until McCain and the other Repussycans start referring to Alito as an "Extraordinary Circumstance.")
Could be mistaken, but I think it's the responsibilty of the liberal 7 of the 14 to decide "Extraordinary Circumstance" to support a Dem fillibuster. I think the RINOs decide to yay or nay on the nuclear option in turn.