FWIW, we are condemned before we are saved. If the person being baptized, wasn;t to be saved, it's not the physical baptism, but the regeneration of the spirit or baptism by the Holy SPirit that results in salvation. That's for God to discern anyway.
Every sin committed has already been paid for on the Cross. Those who continue to rebel in sin might suffer the sin unto death if they reject his discipline and are simply good for nothingness if they remain by His plan, but most probably this was a simple blunder resulting in manslaughter.
Of course we know that sin has resulted in death and suffering in the world that doesn't care whether the person who dies or suffers was saved or not. An equally possible scenario from our point of view is that, a la Job, Satan asked God for permission to wreak this disaster and for inscrutable reasons God said yes.