Steyn isn't making this stuff up. Steyn isn't making the predictions. He is citing figures that are 'out there' and have been out there for quite some time. Here's more info (from Rand):
Deaths among working-age males have contributed most to declining life expectancy. A 20-year-old male in Russia now has only a 1 in 2 chance of living to age 60, while one in the United States has a 9 in 10 chance. Russian male life expectancy is now 13 years less than that for Russian females-one of the largest differences by sex in the world. Male life expectancy in Russia is now below that in Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Mexico, Morocco, and the Philippines.
Deaths due to violence, injuries, and other nonnatural causes have contributed heavily to high working-age male mortality. Many of these deaths are alcohol related, and trends in Russian male mortality and alcohol consumption have paralleled each other throughout the past two decades.
Here's another. This one is from 1994.
Climb in Russia's death rate sets off population implosion
Snippet: The decline in Russia's population began in 1991, when deaths exceeded births by 207,000. That year, according to Labor Ministry statistics, fewer than 40 of the country's 79 regional districts registered more deaths than births. But in 1992 the figure was put at 44 districts, and by last year 68 districts were losing population. Today there are only 6 districts in Russia that continue to grow, all with historically high birth rates.
And he didn't 'ignore'--Steyn wrote this: True, there are parts of Russia that are exceptions to these malign trends. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a "Mu" and end with a "slim".
The few figures that he does site are usually from the mid to early 90s. (his claim of an African HIV rate is ludicrous and a plain lie, 1 million HIV cases by outside agencies, that's less then 1% vs 30-40% in Africa...yup "real" numbers there)
Or they are called Moscow (10% of the population), St. Petersburg, Volgagrad, Vladikovkaz, Rostov, Krasnagar, Nizni Novgorad (where Intel and AT&T just openned huge R&D centers that they first closed here in America), Vladivostok, etc. Steyn is full of it.
"A decline in life expectancy this dramatic has never happened in the postwar world.
And yet, go check the out there info on CIA World Fact Book, the average life expectancy has been climbing for several years now.