Dan Walters: No ifs, ands or butts - special election is big for the governor

Sacramento Bee ^ | 10/28/5 | Dan Walters

[SmithL]

Arnold Schwarzenegger's war on Democratic legislators and their labor union allies may have begun with his famous - or infamous - remark in July 2004, that the lawmakers were "girlie men" for refusing to stand up to the unions, an epithet he borrowed, oddly enough, from a "Saturday Night Live" character who was a satiric version of the governor in his bodybuilder days.

Active hostilities, however, commenced three months later, on Oct. 27, 2004, when Schwarzenegger, appearing before a women's conference, mocked union nurses who were fighting with him over work rules. "I'm always kicking their butts," a chuckling Schwarzenegger said. "That's why they don't like me."

Within days, Schwarzenegger and his aides were drafting ballot measures that became his "year of reform" crusade, confident that his soaring approval ratings, then nearly 70 percent, would become a juggernaut that would seal his dominance of the Capitol.

As it happened, the one-year anniversary of Schwarzenegger's "kicking their butts" remark Thursday coincided with the release of a new poll indicating that Schwarzenegger and his anti-union ballot measures are faring poorly just days before the Nov. 8 special election he called to pass them.

And the poll shifted both sides into full spin cycle.

The poll, conducted for the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), found that Schwarzenegger wins approval from just a third of all adult Californians. And of the four measures he is pushing, PPIC said three are running behind among likely voters and the fourth, requiring public worker unions to get members' permission to use dues for politics, is tied.

"Whose butt is getting kicked now?" anti-Schwarzenegger media maven Steve Maviglio crowed in an e-mail to reporters, adding, "Clearly, Californians are ready to shoot the messenger."

[ElkGroveDan]

Other than the fact that PPIC is always skewed about 4 points to the left, it's all going to hinge on turnout.

Prop 73 which prevents secret abortions on minor girls, will draw out the moral base. They will make the difference (ironically) for Arnold.

[starfish923]

Arnie's got my vote.

[Wiseghy]

When I talked with McClintock 2 days ago, he was very upbeat on election, despite the continued negative news in the MSM. Absentee requests are way up, and GOTV campaigns are going very well and the internal and more creditable polls are good.

This could end up as a real surprise and disappointment for the 14% of the electorate attempting to retain their iron grip of control on this state.

[IPWGOP]

[Carry_Okie]

Arnold's biggest tactical problem is that he wasted over a year learning that "working with the Democrats" would gain him nothing. No matter how far he went to co-opt the left, they gave him grief for it. It was an arrogant delusion to think that he could do what no Republican governor has ever done before. Meanwhile his cavorting with less than stellar supporters has tainted his proffered independence. Given the meagre results, the public is rightly disillusioned.

Disillusionment out of that wasted opportunity is what we are now seeing. Propositions similar to these is what we should have seen instead of 57 & 58 when Arnold's popularity was riding high. As things are now, I seriously doubt 76-8 will pass. Those ballot measures which stand to pass, while he endorsed them, are not of his own making. Given his penchant for spending, we are facing the likely prospect of his endorsing a tax increase.

My bet is that even the CAGOP would reconsider its closure of the primary in such an event. It would be a fitting epitaph.

I predicted during the recall that it would take Arnold at least 18 months to figure out where the bodies were buried in order to begin an intelligent reorg with less than destructive cutbacks. I was wrong. He still doesn't get it and either thinks that the state is operating lean and mean or has no clue how or where to cut back. I think he's actually credulous enough to believe his advisors. That is where his internal dishonesty really harms him. It induces a blindness to others seeking to deceive.

[calcowgirl]

Propositions similar to these is what we should have seen instead of 57 & 58 when Arnold's popularity was riding high. As things are now, I seriously doubt 76-8 will pass. Those ballot measures which stand to pass, while he endorsed them, are not of his own making.

I don't understand your statement. Which propositions? Given their diversity, I don't think we can lump them all together. I don't think you're suggesting that 76-78 is what we need, but I'm not following you.

Given his penchant for spending, we are facing the likely prospect of his endorsing a tax increase.

I think we are being set up for a tax increase, either way. If he doesn't get the additional debt authorized by Prop 76, he would have to cut spending (not likely given his track record). If prop 76 passes, it just defers those obligations which will make it harder to balance the budget in future years. When the economy turns down, with 7%+ of the budget being dedicated to paying off debt alone, Watch Out! (and that 7%+ is without any new infrastructure bonds!)

[Carry_Okie]

I don't understand your statement. Which propositions?

I thought you knew enough about where I stood that I could forgo explanation.

73 is fine as is. 74 should have removed teacher tenure for k-12 entirely. 75 is fine. 76 should have restored the Gann limits. 77 should have been a mathematical formula restricting limits on gerrymandering.

All serve good ends, but as they are, deliver upon those goals to varying degrees.

[calcowgirl]

Aha! I missed the an important word in your post: "Propositions similar to these"

Now I get it. Thanks.

[SierraWasp]

I'm starting to feel much more confident about my dire predictions about Arnold joining "Preditor" movie co-star Jesse Ventura in the political dustbin of Gubernatorial history!!! (and dragging the CAGOP into ignomy with his miserable "moderate" failure)

[calcowgirl]

There was plenty of evidence to support the prediction.
I hope you're wrong about the parenthetical part (but it doesn't look good).

He's back on the air now:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1511168/posts
Governor returns to TV to push proposals (Schwarzenegger)

[metalurgist]

Arnold joining "Preditor" movie co-star Jesse Ventura in the political dustbin of Gubernatorial history!!! (and dragging the CAGOP into ignomy with his miserable "moderate" failure

Excuse me if I'm wrong, but isn't ignominy a step up from what the California Republican party was before Arnold?

[SierraWasp]

No, you could be right, depending on how you look at things. We git mad at political parties and politicians when they set aside their platform (principles) just to win and hold power. Then we git mad at 'em when they stick to their platform (principles) and sometimes lose elections!!!

So tell me, Mr. metalurgist, which of those two perspectives are you learned point of view???

[Amerigomag]

Schwarzenegger just announced on a televised forum that he didn't care what effects Prop 77 had on either political party.

He expanded that he wasn't sent to Sacramento by either the Republican Party or the Democrats, but by the people, to clean up the mess that both parties had created. He even likened his quest to that of Hiram Johnson.

[SierraWasp]

Well, I happen to think that the Governor's proclamations are a PANTLOAD!!! (and they're NOT going to help him with ANYONE)

So whataya think about that???

[Amerigomag]

So whataya think about that???

Like you, I learned by December 2003 to watch what the Austrian does, not what he says.

Tonight he bent over backward to divorce himself from his party registration. He laid equal blame to both parties and wrapped the cloak of populism around his broad shoulders, continually repeating that he represented the people.

His high point was a response to one of McClatchy's liberal hacks who asked Schwarzenegger if was "fair" to put such a complicated, implying confusing or deceptive or both, initiative (Prop 76) on the November ballot.

Schwarzenegger replied by reviewing his Austrian heritage, enumerating the communist countries that surrounded Austria during his youth. He explained that the citizens of those counties cried for a voice, no matter how small, in the affairs of their government. In the stunned silence that followed his observation, he emphasized that democracy is participatory and a little work to review the ballot materials prior to voting was a small price to pay for the privilege of franchise.

The Bee reporter visibly slumped in his seat on the dais.

[SierraWasp]

Well... I can't think of another thing to add to THAT!!!

Phhhhhht!!! Hasta La Vista, Arnold!!!

[metalurgist]

Do what the crats have done for the last 70 years toward their goal of socialism. Take your half loaf and then come back for more. If you demand purity of principle or nothing, nothing is what you'll get.

[SierraWasp]

Listen! I'm sick of hearing that tired old tirade of compromise and appeasment! There's an old law we shall call "The Waspman's Law!"

It goes like this... "In every encounter a sale is made! Either I'll sell you that my idea is good and you'll buy-in, or you'll sell me on the idea that I should give it up and take a half-a-loaf..."

The politics of CA have turned on a dime as they did with Prop 13 and the Governorship of Ronauldus Magnus, to say nothing of the Assembly majority taken in 1994 when Willie Brown was termed out by Term Limits!

If you never demand what is right, you'll never put what's right in control of CA government!!!

[FairOpinion]

"When I talked with McClintock 2 days ago, he was very upbeat on election, despite the continued negative news in the MSM. Absentee requests are way up, and GOTV campaigns are going very well and the internal and more creditable polls are good.

This could end up as a real surprise and disappointment for the 14% of the electorate attempting to retain their iron grip of control on this state."

====

Thanks for sharing it. I hope so. I was happy to hear that McClintock has been campaigning for these propositions and that he pointed out in his recommendations, that:

""Proposition 76: State Spending. Should government live within its means? YES. This measure restores the authority that the governor of California had between 1939 and 1983 to make mid-year spending cuts whenever spending outpaces revenue without having to return to the legislature"

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THE CA PROPOSITIONS; Democratic and Republican activists discuss the propositions
Dean urges voters to reject measures governor supports [California]
Davis opposes Schwarzenegger's reform initiatives
CA: Feinstein to oppose Schwarzenegger's special election initiatives
John Alden (Marin cnty Dem Party chairman): Vote no on Prop 76 - we need better leaders
McClintock's recommendations for CA Propositions
Summary of Recommendations on the CA Propositions by various organizations and parties
CA: McClintock stumps for governor's ballot initiatives
Supporters of the CA Propositions 74-77 include CA Club for Growth, Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association, Ray Haynes, San Fernando Valley Town Hall Conservatives, Republican Party, and many others. Click on the link for a more comprehensive list.
And you can see from links above who are the ones opposing them: Democrats, Unions, Howard Dean, various Dem party chairmen, etc.