Here's my take. I was initially suspect of Roberts but so far I really like him. I don't think it's gonna be JRB, but I don't think it will be Gonzales either. It will be either a Priscilla Owen type, or another, female, lesser known judge somewhat more conservative than O'Connor.
I tend to agree with you. Conservatives have been empowered and they will not accept a Gonzales. I think this president is astute enough to realize that. OTOH, we have also empowered the left with our public insistence that we have a pro-life evangelical. A fight is really coming. But I still want Janice Rodgers Brown!
Watch for Consuela Maria Callahan from the 9th Circuit. A "moderate conservative" who has dissented from some of the 9th circuits odder decisions and has been compared to O'Connor.