I think Mfume is probably going to lose, short of some spectacular revelation being disclosed that impacts Cardin's chances negatively.
I don't know if Steele's charisma-or impeccable conservative credentials-will be enough to compete with the still overwhelming advantage Democrats have in that state.
While I think race might play a (marginal) role in that election, I'm not so sure that it will be dispositive.
I have the same feeling with regard to Blackwell in Ohio-probably my favorite politician in the country-who is going to be burdened by the baggage of Bob Tax, and his merry band of whiny RINOs, in spite of his attempts to chart a different course for the Ohio Republican Party.
I think a spectacular revelation in Cardin's case would be that he shaved his head. (The shine from the stage during a Cardin-Steele debate will be rather glaring.) Cardin's amazingly dull, but he's been on top of some ethics issues, and he's got a long liberal track record that should be appealing to a big sector of Maryland. This from his bio:
"From 1999 to 2005, he was the leading Democrat on the Human Resources Subcommittee where he introduced legislation that would bring welfare reform to the next level by helping those who leave public assistance get the skills they need so they can work their way out of poverty. His bill to increase education and support services for foster care children between ages 18 and 21 was signed into law in 1999. He has authored bills to expand child support, hold fathers more accountable, improve the welfare-to-work program and increase the child care tax credit."