Hurricane Wilma Forecast/advisory Number 36
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al242005
0900z Mon Oct 24 2005
A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida
Keys... Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay...along The
Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward... And Along The
Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward... Including Lake
Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida West
Coast North Of Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River...and Along The
Florida East Coast North Of Titusville To St. Augustine.
A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect Along The Northeast Coast
Of Florida From North Of St. Augustine To Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of
Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas. These Warnings
And Watches Will Likely Be Discontinued Later This Morning.
A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern
Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...
Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
Hurricane Center Located Near 25.5n 82.4w At 24/0900z
Position Accurate Within 20 Nm
Present Movement Toward The Northeast Or 50 Degrees At 17 Kt
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 952 Mb
Eye Diameter 65 Nm
Max Sustained Winds 105 Kt With Gusts To 130 Kt.
64 Kt....... 75ne 80se 75sw 50nw.
50 Kt.......125ne 125se 125sw 90nw.
34 Kt.......200ne 200se 175sw 150nw.
12 Ft Seas..325ne 300se 200sw 325nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.
Repeat...center Located Near 25.5n 82.4w At 24/0900z
At 24/0600z Center Was Located Near 25.0n 83.1w
Forecast Valid 24/1800z 27.9n 79.0w
Max Wind 85 Kt...gusts 105 Kt.
64 Kt... 70ne 85se 75sw 50nw.
50 Kt...125ne 125se 100sw 90nw.
34 Kt...200ne 225se 175sw 175nw.
Forecast Valid 25/0600z 32.9n 73.1w
Max Wind 75 Kt...gusts 90 Kt.
64 Kt... 70ne 85se 60sw 30nw.
50 Kt...125ne 150se 125sw 75nw.
34 Kt...200ne 225se 200sw 175nw.
Forecast Valid 25/1800z 39.0n 66.5w...extratropical
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 Kt...225ne 250se 225sw 125nw.
Forecast Valid 26/0600z 44.0n 60.0w...extratropical
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 Kt...200ne 250se 175sw 125nw.
Forecast Valid 27/0600z 47.5n 51.0w...extratropical
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
50 Kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 Kt...200ne 250se 175sw 125nw.
Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day
Outlook Valid 28/0600z 48.0n 40.0w...extratropical
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
Outlook Valid 29/0600z 48.0n 29.0w...extratropical
Max Wind 50 Kt...gusts 60 Kt.
Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 25.5n 82.4w
Next Advisory At 24/1500z
Forecaster Pasch
It looks like Katrina (maybe on steroids) in reverse to me...
My plot shows a slight shift to the left / north with that last position but the direction of 50 degrees should bring that back to the right. The 1800z estimate in the 5AM has Wilma exiting at Jupiter, Fl. Looks like closest approach to casa NVA is about 100 miles. That would be fine if this witch wasn't spitting out tornadoes in the neighborhood. :)