Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[laz]

OK...looks like Wilma's eye is getting better organized. Yucko.....

Yup.

westerlies haven't kicked in yet *wind shear* should cut the cloud tops off Wilma.

Ed Rappaport just said shear will not weaken her. Not enough time before landfall. She's gonna hold steady at Cat 2 or increase to 3.

Will she even hit Florida?

Yes. Oh yes. Unless Gazoo snaps his fingers and makes her disappear.

[laz]

See #757.

[SE Mom]

Just got back from what was supposed to be a quick trip to Walmart. OMG- you would think we're about to get hit by the eye of a cat 5 here. Mind you- I'm up near Orlando so we're expecting some wind and rain- maybe loss of power but nothing serious. Walmart was awful. People (clearly all liberals) were rude, pushy and semi-hysterical.

I couldn't wait to get home to my civilized dogs:)

[LucyT]

*****

[laz]

Go, shear. Tear it up.

I wish, but Rappaport says no. In each appearance, he re-emphasizes possible strengthening to Cat 3.

[steveegg]

I did. I'll take 2.

[laz]

People (clearly all liberals) were rude, pushy and semi-hysterical.

Maybe they'll resort to cannibalism.

[jeffers]

More data, but no answers:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

That shows the max winds reported in the Vortex data occurring in the outer eyewall, no mention of what's happening inside that radius.

The vapor image (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/latest_eastwv.jpg) clearly shows what this:

"CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE."

refers to, but it's too early to know what's happening there.

If it's a mini-cane spinning up, it has to start from zero, but gets a big boost when it overwhelms and steals the energy from the existing eyewall out at 60 NM.

If it's another eyewall, in conjunction with the whole storm, the whole storm will drive its development and the eye will tighten and intensify quicker in the short term.

Like I said, new ground, but I don't like it. No matter how you slice it, you are seeing advection, vorticity, condensation, and vertical development in there, none of them good indicators from a supposedly steady state or weakening storm.

[varina davis]

Pressure here, about 60 miles N of Tampa, is now at 29.67 and falling. My ears are throbbing.

[ThreePuttinDude]

The same thing happened last year when Charley passed through.

It got eerily quiet, then all hell broke loose.

Normally we have birds chirping, frogs croaking, etc. etc.
Not today, not even a breeze brushing the past the pines.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Locals in Orlando are calling this storm a "hybrid" I guess because the shear elongates the wind field and furthermore weakens the eye.

[SauronOfMordor]

Just looked at current sat pic Large eye seems to be forming/re-forming

[ThreePuttinDude]

Where are you, off of Verna? I have a freind off of Singletary in Myakka City.

[Caipirabob]

I like the idea, too. We'll hunt down some old blankets to cover the ends of the cars and do that. I braced the doors with hollow Steel bars going across. 5 screws through each bar. I can't do a cross support, but it's far stronger than it was before. Also, the garage faces Eastward and won't be taking the brunt of the strongest winds. I hope.

We'll move the cars in a while. I need a soda and to goof off some.

But I'm sure we're better prepared than we have ever been before.

I roasted a bactch of Sulwanese (sp), some Brasilian Santa Helena and some Colombian Huila. Should get me through a few days...

[exhaustedmomma]

The people over here seem to be watching how she does as she is entering warmer water. I'm guessing it is that "pocket" of warm water.

[laz]

Like I said, new ground, but I don't like it. No matter how you slice it, you are seeing advection, vorticity, condensation, and vertical development in there, none of them good indicators from a supposedly steady state or weakening storm.

I don't like it either. I think this bitch still has some surprises she's been holding back on until now, and I have a sense of foreboding. No wonder Rappaport keeps mentioning possible intensification to Cat 3 with a poker face. He's already nixed the notion of weakening.

[Caipirabob]

My mom passed one year and four days ago, and had stockpiled some liquor for parties, since she and dad weren't much for drinking. Dad was going to toss it, but I intervened, and am now the proud possessor of a blizzard stockpile of 50 fifths and half gallons of 30 and 40 year old hard liquor.

LOL! Now that's what I call emergency provisions...

[Vermonter]

You have freepmail

[Hunble]

Sorry, but as a long time meteorologist, I consider Wilma, as it approaches Florida, to be a rather minor storm. The people of Florida have had plenty of warning and everyone should be well prepared by now.

After Katrina, everyone is hyper-sensitive about hurricanes, but Wilma has been severely weakened.

For me, what happened in Cozumel is almost beyond belief. I have never seen a hurricane hover over a single location for such a long duration. How anything is still alive on that island, is beyond me.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Jeb is so on the ball. Fox just showed kitties being evacuated in cages.