Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

They really should have used different colors instead of all those shades of red.

Wind Risk tables:

CAT 2 HURRICANE (98mph)       FORWARD SPEED: 25mph

CAT 3 HURRICANE (121mph)       FORWARD SPEED: 25mph

EXTENT OF INLAND WINDS

[jeffers]

Give Laz the credit for the wind penetration link, I was just commenting on it.

I drink instant all the time, so living without dry roast isn't a problem. We don't have hurricanes here, but we have blizzards, and six inches of snowfall often get blown into 6 foot drifts. The Jeep will blast through sustained 3 footers, but 4 footers stop it cold, and the real problem isn't the drifts, it's the other cars stuck in them, so I know what you mean about getting trapped without luxuries for several days.

My mom passed one year and four days ago, and had stockpiled some liquor for parties, since she and dad weren't much for drinking. Dad was going to toss it, but I intervened, and am now the proud possessor of a blizzard stockpile of 50 fifths and half gallons of 30 and 40 year old hard liquor.

Let it snow!

[Vermonter]

To heck with all that nailing and cutting.....

My sentiments exactly. Don't know how truly effective this method is, but it gave me some peace of mind last year while we sweated out 4 hurricanes.

[laz]

Landfall between Ft Myers and Naples about daybreak

I'm still sticking to somewhere between Marco Island and Naples. I'll be like Bastardi and stick to my guns. ;)

[steveegg]

An odd message at the end of this Hunter dispatch - pressure down 2 mb to 961 mb, eye fix not great -

707 
URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
  085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA  kt
E.     deg     nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H.         961 mb
I.  13 C/ 3046 m
J.  14 C/ 3046 m
K.  11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4  nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA        OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR  180 /  8 NM  FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.

(Shaky) motion in the last 1:15 north-northeast (31 degrees) at 18 mph.

[laz]

So, what time are you leaving this afternoon?

I'm not. I could go to my aunt's house, but she's further north, closer to downtown Miami, and therefore closer to the eye. And she's riding it out. So I'm gonna ride it out too, and stay here on FR till my power goes out.

[U S Army EOD]

Birds have an uncanny way of sensing pressure drop.

[NautiNurse]

No idea what it means. Wild guess - curvature perhaps means stadium effect developing...tilt - turning? Repeat - just conjecture.

[jeffers]

Thanks...I'd really like to see that eye settle down some more, but we're running out of time. I'll give it an hour and then start working on surge projections. That weird eye is going to skew everything deeper and wider on the projections, with no way of knowing whether reality will match that or not.

The eye diameter based model's worked well before, so I'll go with it, but take the graphics with a big pile of salt until we see some empirical data to back them up.

[U S Army EOD]

My dog just opened one eye, looked around, and went back to sleep.

[laz]

Pressure dropping, looks like eye is shrinking.

The only thing I can speculate about the strange message at the end, like NN, is that it means a stadium effect.

[jeffers]

The Keys are pretty exposed with this strike geometry. Though not perfect, mostly transverse winds are going to want to push water right over them like they aren't even there.

The only good news is that the deepening surge will originate from the NW, with winds from the SW, mostly in opposition. Still, it isn't going to be pretty in the Keys after Wilma gets done with them.

[jeffers]

If the wife isn't buying it, option B includes some wailing, rolling, and speaking in tongues.

[laz]

Ed Rappaport just said she'll either maintain Cat 2 status or increase to 3. No weakening to 1.

[steveegg]

Could be; hope either the next one or the 5 pm discussion explains it.

[shield]

OK...looks like Wilma's eye is getting better organized. Yucko.....westerlies haven't kicked in yet *wind shear* should cut the cloud tops off Wilma.

Will she even hit Florida? Isn't she deeper south than they thought she'd be? Shirting south Florida...maybe.

[laz]

Local met asked Rappaport about that tilt, he replied it could be due to shear. Then he emphasized that the shear won't be enough to weaken her on the way in. Cat 2 all the way, maybe up to a 3.

[jeffers]

"STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE."

Go, shear. Tear it up.

Eye weirdness here:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/latest_eastwv.jpg

A mini-cane within the eye of the older cane? Eyewall replacement battle? No idea how this is going to act, this storm is breaking new ground for me.

[No Blue States]

"The stadium effect is a rare phenomenon appearing in hurricanes in which the inward curvature of the cumulonimbi top forming the eyewall of the hurricane creates an open dome that resembles a football stadium. Its presence implies a mature and very intense hurricane/typhoon."

I dont think its a stadium effect with a Cat 2-3. Maybe it has something to do with its increasing forward speed?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadium_effect

[steveegg]

Hurray shear!