Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[laz]

LBAR finally comes off Tampa, indicates a landfall around Venice.

Hehe, LBAR persists in keeping landfall well north of all the other models.

[Prolifeconservative]

"Yup, she'll start accelerating now. I think it's all set in stone, now. Just gotta wait and watch it unfold."

LOL! I've never known anyone so excited about getting a hurricane.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 33
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 23, 2005

 
Wilma is moving a little faster toward the northeast at about 7
kt... which is a mere preview of the gradual acceleration expected
during the next couple of days. A mid- to upper-level low currently
situated roughly over Iowa is forecast by the dynamical models to
move eastward over the Great Lakes region during the next 24 hours.
The associated trough over the southeastern United States will
deepen some and gradually strengthen the westerlies over the Gulf
of Mexico... which will push Wilma northeastward at an increasing
pace. The latest dynamical model runs continue to focus the Florida
landfall over the southern part of the peninsula... but still with
some variation in both the speed and path. The GFDL is the
southernmost solution... and the other models have perhaps shifted
slightly south and are a little slower than before. The official
forecast is only adjusted slightly to the south with negligible
change in the timing... and it is very close to the model
consensus.  It is important to stress that one should not focus on
the exact forecast track since Wilma has a large and expanding wind
field... and significant impacts will likely be felt well away from
the center.

The last recon fix at about 12z measured a central pressure 961
mb... which had remained steady for several hours. The next
aircraft is almost in the center at this hour and will provide
updates on the pressure and winds. For now...the intensity is kept
at 85 kt given the limited changes in structure observed in
satellite imagery... and 12z Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0/90
kt. Inner core convection and organization do seem to be on a
gradual increase.  As Wilma passes over The Loop current
today...and while the wind shear remains weak enough... some
intensification is certainly possible during the next 12 to 18
hours... as suggested by the GFDL model. The SHIPS guidance
forecasts a steady weakening until landfall... although it might be
overestimating the impacts of shear in the short term. However...it
does appear that the shear will strengthen in the hours prior to
landfall and as Wilma crosses Florida... so weakening is indicated
in the official forecast before landfall. While the best estimate
of landfall intensity is category two...it remains possible that
Wilma could reach Florida at category three intensity.

 

Forecaster Knabb

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      23/1500z 22.7n  85.8w    85 kt
 12hr VT     24/0000z 23.7n  84.5w    95 kt
 24hr VT     24/1200z 25.8n  81.5w    90 kt
 36hr VT     25/0000z 29.5n  77.3w    70 kt
 48hr VT     25/1200z 35.1n  72.4w    60 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     26/1200z 45.0n  64.0w    55 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     27/1200z 48.5n  55.0w    55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     28/1200z 50.0n  45.0w    55 kt...extratropical

[laz]

could intensify today or tonight...

Not good. Guess I'll stick with my prediction of a borderline Cat 3. Then she'll feel almost like a 4 south of the eye.

[NautiNurse]

We'll know soon enough. Hang in there.

[steveegg]

The 36-hour (8 am tomorrow) position in the current discussion puts Wilma just off the tidal marshes about 8 miles southwest of Everglades City as a mid-range Category 2 (90 knots), a touch further south than previous forecasts.

[Fawn]

I'm all set here...just have to slide my hurricane shutters over(they are the accordian type), bring in the bird feeder and arrange the back porch.......so will do it all this afternoon.
Also...remember to turn down your air conditioner as much as possible to keep it cooler longer in your house when the electric goes out...also turn up your freezer/refrig to High. It's only supposed to be gusts of 80-90mph....and it's moving fast.
The said the tornado risk is HIGH...due to the cold air moving in.....so that may be the worst of it.

[steveegg]

Will be back about 1:30. Will be praying for you guys and gals in Florida.

[tiredoflaundry]

Also...remember to turn down your air conditioner as much as possible to keep it cooler longer in your house when the electric goes out...also turn up your freezer/refrig to High

thanks for that reminder, I forgot to do that! :-)

[SamAdams76]

Once Wilma departs Florida, the story is far from over. Here is latest from Joe Bastardi's blog. I am not permitted to post his blog verbatim as it is subscription only, but I don't think he'll mind me posting this teaser:

SUNDAY 11:15 AM A post on the severe situation along the east coast will be here shortly afternoon, providing I dont get killed doing my leg workout the next half hour. However let me say this. I think ALPHA is going to come out and INTENSIFY tonight and tomorrow. When I see systems whole overall cloud pattern IMPROVES over land, even though the low level center has been disrupted, that is a problem. But more on this later.

I'll post some info from his blog later on today but basically he is calling for a rogue superstorm off the East Coast Monday night through Wednesday which will result in hurricane force gusts of wind on the SE New England Coast and a windswept "tree killing" snowstorm in the interior of New England all the way down to central PA. I live on the edge of the projected rain/snow line and it is currently 42 degrees and overcast where I am right now.

Here is weather map of what is projected to unfold.

[steveegg]

Before I go, there's a hopeful report from the Hunters - pressure is up to 964 mb -

000
URNT12 KNHC 231514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/14:58:20Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
  085 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2787 m
D. 60  kt
E. 312 deg 104 nm
F. 036 deg 067 kt
G. 306 deg 034 nm
H.         964 mb
I.  12 C/ 3047 m
J.  14 C/ 3045 m
K.  13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA        OB 05
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NW QUAD 14:49:00 Z
MAX WIND BAND 60NM DIAMETER WITH SMALLER EYEWALL FORMING WITHIN.

[blam]

"Also...remember to turn down your air conditioner as much as possible to keep it cooler longer in your house when the electric goes out.

My brothers wife did that, it lasted about 15-20 minutes after the electricity went out and we all got sick from it. That's a no-go, IMO.

[laz]

LOL! I've never known anyone so excited about getting a hurricane.

Not excited. Just staying on top of things and keeping my eyes open. I've been suspecting for the past two days this was never going to go to Tampa, and seeing the pieces fall into place overnight was confirmation. I've been telling my relatives here in Miami that Wilma would come in lower, and they didn't believe me. They considered it a Central Florida event. Not anymore.

[Fawn]

I don't understand how you got sick from it. It worked great for me last year....

[Fawn]

West Palm Beach County is only like a 2 hour drive across state....and all flat. If Naples gets a cat 2----I don't see why WPB won't get a cat 2.

[Fawn]

One question-----willit take out the Kennedy compound?

[Michael Goldsberry]

FNC showing new footage from Cancun. Very serious damage.

[blam]

(Hurricane) Ophelia's Scouring Revealed Items From Queen Anne's Revenge Ship

[blam]

"I don't understand how you got sick from it. It worked great for me last year...."

I was damp...in and out of the house, I actually got cold.

[SE Mom]

We did the same thing last year- turned the AC down about an hour before the winds picked up..

It's picked up steam..10 mph forward speed- expecting to crank up to 20.

Damage in Mexico looks nasty.