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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hehe, LBAR persists in keeping landfall well north of all the other models.
"Yup, she'll start accelerating now. I think it's all set in stone, now. Just gotta wait and watch it unfold."
LOL! I've never known anyone so excited about getting a hurricane.
Wilma is moving a little faster toward the northeast at about 7 kt... which is a mere preview of the gradual acceleration expected during the next couple of days. A mid- to upper-level low currently situated roughly over Iowa is forecast by the dynamical models to move eastward over the Great Lakes region during the next 24 hours. The associated trough over the southeastern United States will deepen some and gradually strengthen the westerlies over the Gulf of Mexico... which will push Wilma northeastward at an increasing pace. The latest dynamical model runs continue to focus the Florida landfall over the southern part of the peninsula... but still with some variation in both the speed and path. The GFDL is the southernmost solution... and the other models have perhaps shifted slightly south and are a little slower than before. The official forecast is only adjusted slightly to the south with negligible change in the timing... and it is very close to the model consensus. It is important to stress that one should not focus on the exact forecast track since Wilma has a large and expanding wind field... and significant impacts will likely be felt well away from the center.
The last recon fix at about 12z measured a central pressure 961 mb... which had remained steady for several hours. The next aircraft is almost in the center at this hour and will provide updates on the pressure and winds. For now...the intensity is kept at 85 kt given the limited changes in structure observed in satellite imagery... and 12z Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0/90 kt. Inner core convection and organization do seem to be on a gradual increase. As Wilma passes over The Loop current today...and while the wind shear remains weak enough... some intensification is certainly possible during the next 12 to 18 hours... as suggested by the GFDL model. The SHIPS guidance forecasts a steady weakening until landfall... although it might be overestimating the impacts of shear in the short term. However...it does appear that the shear will strengthen in the hours prior to landfall and as Wilma crosses Florida... so weakening is indicated in the official forecast before landfall. While the best estimate of landfall intensity is category two...it remains possible that Wilma could reach Florida at category three intensity.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/1500z 22.7n 85.8w 85 kt 12hr VT 24/0000z 23.7n 84.5w 95 kt 24hr VT 24/1200z 25.8n 81.5w 90 kt 36hr VT 25/0000z 29.5n 77.3w 70 kt 48hr VT 25/1200z 35.1n 72.4w 60 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 26/1200z 45.0n 64.0w 55 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 27/1200z 48.5n 55.0w 55 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 28/1200z 50.0n 45.0w 55 kt...extratropical
Not good. Guess I'll stick with my prediction of a borderline Cat 3. Then she'll feel almost like a 4 south of the eye.
We'll know soon enough. Hang in there.
The 36-hour (8 am tomorrow) position in the current discussion puts Wilma just off the tidal marshes about 8 miles southwest of Everglades City as a mid-range Category 2 (90 knots), a touch further south than previous forecasts.
Will be back about 1:30. Will be praying for you guys and gals in Florida.
thanks for that reminder, I forgot to do that! :-)
SUNDAY 11:15 AM A post on the severe situation along the east coast will be here shortly afternoon, providing I dont get killed doing my leg workout the next half hour. However let me say this. I think ALPHA is going to come out and INTENSIFY tonight and tomorrow. When I see systems whole overall cloud pattern IMPROVES over land, even though the low level center has been disrupted, that is a problem. But more on this later.
I'll post some info from his blog later on today but basically he is calling for a rogue superstorm off the East Coast Monday night through Wednesday which will result in hurricane force gusts of wind on the SE New England Coast and a windswept "tree killing" snowstorm in the interior of New England all the way down to central PA. I live on the edge of the projected rain/snow line and it is currently 42 degrees and overcast where I am right now.
000 URNT12 KNHC 231514 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 23/14:58:20Z B. 22 deg 43 min N 085 deg 52 min W C. 700 mb 2787 m D. 60 kt E. 312 deg 104 nm F. 036 deg 067 kt G. 306 deg 034 nm H. 964 mb I. 12 C/ 3047 m J. 14 C/ 3045 m K. 13 C/ NA L. OPEN NW M. CO10-60 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 05 MAX FL WIND 67 KT NW QUAD 14:49:00 Z MAX WIND BAND 60NM DIAMETER WITH SMALLER EYEWALL FORMING WITHIN.
My brothers wife did that, it lasted about 15-20 minutes after the electricity went out and we all got sick from it. That's a no-go, IMO.
Not excited. Just staying on top of things and keeping my eyes open. I've been suspecting for the past two days this was never going to go to Tampa, and seeing the pieces fall into place overnight was confirmation. I've been telling my relatives here in Miami that Wilma would come in lower, and they didn't believe me. They considered it a Central Florida event. Not anymore.
I don't understand how you got sick from it. It worked great for me last year....
West Palm Beach County is only like a 2 hour drive across state....and all flat. If Naples gets a cat 2----I don't see why WPB won't get a cat 2.
One question-----willit take out the Kennedy compound?
FNC showing new footage from Cancun. Very serious damage.
I was damp...in and out of the house, I actually got cold.
We did the same thing last year- turned the AC down about an hour before the winds picked up..
It's picked up steam..10 mph forward speed- expecting to crank up to 20.
Damage in Mexico looks nasty.
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