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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
New thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1508056/posts |
Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
Hey- I just saw you on the Jeb thread:)
Just got off the phone with friends in Boca- they're hearing they'll get a little smack too- since it's going to move so fast it'll still be a cat 1 when it exits.
Could be a wild ride for most of the Eastern Seaboard over the next few days. Keep us posted, please.
Hey there ToL. Good gosh I've missed most of our nightly Levin shows lately.
Too many late afternoon appointments. I hate when that happens.....8^)
No appointments between 6-8 pm! :-)
Wilma will continue to accelerate to the northeast today and AccuWeather.com Meteorologists are forecasting landfall near Naples close to 9:00 a.m. Monday and exit Florida south of Vero Beach about 2:00 p.m. Monday afternoon.
Once Wilma makes landfall, it will last about 4-6 hours in any one location. Wilma will expand in size which means tropical storm force winds will cover 200 miles either side of the path of the eye.
Typically, a category 2 hurricane will cause moderate damage. Trees will be broken and blown down, power poles snapped, power outages, damage to roofs and flooding.
The news just keeps getting better. Thought it was going to be a night time landfall. Whew!
Interesting. Joe Bastardi is convinced that TS Algore will still jump to the north and "marry up" with Wilma off the Southeast coast. We'll know in the next 24 hours.
What a nice story. My son lives in Key West. I'll have to ask him if he's been to the Grotto.
Lots of birds hanging around here this morning (egrets, doves, blue jays, gulls). A very good sign for Tampa Bay.
That is a good sign !
LOL - Good catch!
That's not to say that anyone in the direct path should relax. Wilma is going to hammer southwest Florida hard, but will be gone quickly.
...Wilma moving northeastward over warm Gulf waters...could intensify today or tonight...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East Coast from Titusville southward...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of Florida from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has discontinued all hurricane warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula. However...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from San Felipe to Tulum...including Cozumel and the nearby islands. The Tropical Storm Warning from west of San Felipe to Progreso has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands... Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 285 miles... 460 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida... or about 340 miles... 545 km... southwest of the southwestern coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb...28.38 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 ft above normal tide levels is possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern coast of Florida. Storm surge flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula and the nearby islands should gradually subside as Wilma moves away.
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to propagate into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast today and tonight.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today and tonight.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...22.7 N... 85.8 W. Movement toward...northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Knabb
We have zilch, nada, nothing in the way of a breeze. It's dead still. We've decided to forego the boards. I am going to make the kid get his fishing gear off the deck.
I see Wunderground has slowed down the timing again.
As to birds, I'm looking out the window, see an egrit at the lake, some wood storks, a flock of ibis are eating the bugs that the lawnman's spray must not have killed, and the quaker parrots are squawking, LOL.
I see from the floater that she's steady on course for a strike between Naples and Everglades.
Ed Rappaport just gave press update. Conditions will deteriorate later today, with landfall tomorrow morning after dawn. He noted considerable concern for the Keys with storm surge in addition to wave action.
The news just keeps getting better. Thought it was going to be a night time landfall. Whew!
This is my opinion only.- In the Naples Marco island area,with a 9 AM eye on the shore landing because of the forecast easterly movement speed of Wilma ("About 20 mph)and the winds extending out almost 200 miles from the eye, people on the shoreline will start feeling high winds 10 hours before the 9AM landfall-around 11 PM tonight. After midnight they should get even higher as the eye gets closer.. - Tom
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