Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

Mayfield - Wilma will come off the coast as a Cat 2, come over the loop current and probably become a Cat 3. He then discussed some trends that may take Wilma back to Cat 2 before landfall, and Wilma is likely to be just off Florida by Monday morning.

[laz]

And so it begins now for Florida. Intermission is over.

[NonValueAdded]

Melbourne EWS just activated .. Hurricane watch issued for Florida East Coast from Titusville southward.

[steveegg]

Both CNN and Fox drop out before Mayfield started taking questions. As far as I can tell, MSNBC never picked this up.

[NautiNurse]

We are under a Tropical Storm Watch now.

[SE Mom]

You can take on that task if you like:)

We in Florida are taking the winter OFF.

Nauti Nurse deserves a lllong, restful vacation. (with plenty of malted milkballs)

[tiredoflaundry]

Here we go! Prayers for all in Wilma's path!

[not-alone]

Thanks

[NonValueAdded]

Second alert just went off ... Tropical Storm Watch from Titusville north to Fernandina Beach.

[xcamel]

25 years of weather study might have taught me a thing or two about expecting the unexpected, and accurately predicting things that other people generally dismiss.

..and where I live has nothing to do with it.

I'm not trying to steal your thunder, just add to the body of knowledge at hand.

[laz]

Where do they get a speed of 2 mph? Didn't you calculate 4.6 based on the hunters' report? I was expecting her in the GOM tonight, and suddenly she's on the coast.

[NautiNurse]

For the last time, what part of "preliminary forecast" indicates anyone is writing anything off?

[jeffers]

If I may borrow your handle for a moment, Steveegg, to answer a post isolated by the thread change...


Certain_Doom wrote:

"To: jeffers

What is that program you are using to simulate flood waters?


1,543 posted on 10/22/2005 3:50:32 PM EDT by Certain_Doom"


Those go through a chain of different programs. I use Netscape to FTP down the elevation and other datasets, IE where Java is required so I can keep it turned off in Netscape, 3DEM and or MicroDEM if I need to merge multiple datasets, 3DEM or Global Mapper to artificially raise and surge/sea level, and Photoshop to size, annotate and prep the end result for uploading.

[steveegg]

Where do they get a speed of 2 mph? Didn't you calculate 4.6 based on the hunters' report? I was expecting her in the GOM tonight, and suddenly she's on the coast.

They use a 6-hour average to average out the wobbles, while I simply use the last 2 vortex data reports.

[NCjim]

Looks like the governor of SC has a sense of humor...

[xcamel]

current GOM water temps (SST)

Looks like Wilma has pulled some "extra" warm water up in to the gulf proper. This could be just enough fuel to reach cat3 again before landfall in FL.

SST chart

[SamAdams76]

I'll be taking the New England snowstorms.

[dawn53]

I just looked at the models and see that Wunderground puts it the other side of the state by Monday.

Tomorrow we'll decide if we're going to board up the windows. We'll probably do at least the picture windows in front. I always have visions of my across the golf course neighbor's roof tiles flying through my front windows, LOL.

Hubby will probably get called in tomorrow. Most of the preparations the 17 year old can do by himself, but it takes both of them to get the boards over the big windows.

Are you going to board up?

[laz]

This could be just enough fuel to reach cat3 again before landfall in FL.

I simply don't believe the people who say she'll hit FL as a Cat 1 or a TS. I don't think anyone in FL can afford to believe that. If those people turn out to be right, great. But I'm not operating on the assumption that they are. This storm has pulled too many surprises already.

[xcamel]

correction: SST