Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[steveegg]

Mornin' all. Don't have coffee, but I do have the current VDM from the Air Force -

580 
URNT12 KNHC 230943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/09:17:40Z
B. 22 deg 11 min N
  086 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2749 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 359 deg 081 kt
G. 265 deg 076 nm
H.         960 mb
I.  10 C/ 3051 m
J.  14 C/ 3044 m
K.  14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA        OB 26
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z
REMNENT INNER EYE 16 NM DIA. 50% COVERAGE. OPEN W SEMICIRCLE.

Haven't done the math yet on this one (still trying to wake up :-)

[NautiNurse]

Odd thing happened yesterday afternoon while doing storm prep on the patio. Had that strange feeling...looked up across the water, and there was a man standing at the water's edge, just STARING at me while I was working.

I figure he is the new neighbor across the way, with his new boat. Don't think he has ever been through a storm, because he had that doe-in-the-headlights look about him.

[NautiNurse]

Coffee is ready here. Ahhhhh...

[sheikdetailfeather]

Good morning! WFTV in Orlando says on Monday expect 60-80 mph wind GUSTS for Osceola, S. Brevard, and Polk. Counties to the north of Orlando can expect 40-50 mph GUSTS. WFTV HAS STREAMING VIDEO DURING HURRICANES WITH TOM TERRY AND IT IS GOOD. HE WILL BE ON EVERY HALF HOUR THEY SAID. WFTV breaks it down by county for everyone too so we know what to expect and when. With that I am going to get some sleep!

[tiredoflaundry]

That guy might be in for a big surprise! I hope he tied his "new boat" down !

We will clear the patio this morning. My sons & husband have it down to a science at this point!

[laz]

Look at the visible floater. When I noticed the first shift to the right, three hours ago, I thought maybe my eyes were tricking me. Now it's obvious she turned from NNE to NE. You can see the shift in direction in the last three frames.

I think Marco Island might be it.

[sheikdetailfeather]

You are good!

[laz]

Check my posts from #445 on. I was going to go to sleep, but something told me to stay up a bit longer, and I noticed the moment she made the turn and took aim.

[SE Mom]

Morning everyone..coffee's perking.

[buickmackane]

I was just looking at the 5 am EDT tracking maps on wunderground.com for both Wilma and Alpha. I am wondering if anyone thinks they might converge on Monday or Tuesday. What a nasty prospect for the entire East Coast if that happens!

[Sam Cree]

Some of the mets were saying that last night.

[NautiNurse]

Per WFOR, you have the highest odds for tornados in your area with this system.

[Caipirabob]

Very quiet here in Boca Raton this morning. Already had my pint of freshly ground Colombian Huila Coffee. Trying not to wake up my favorite Colombian because she was pretty tired last night.

I've already filled the car and there was no one at the pump at 6:00AM. I'm preparing to pull out all the plywood and board up the patio. This is the first time I've done that before, but we're expecting gusts of up to 120 here in West Boca from what I'm reading. That will most likely take out the screen patio. I'm feeling pretty bad for my neighbor. He's a hard worker and just put in a new pool and patio that was finished in March. Perhaps the fence will be enough protection.

So I figure I've got about 3 hours of hard labor and then I'll decide if I'm going to evacuate anyways. I'm hoping we'll see this blow North, rip itself apart and weaken but that's not too likely I suppose.

So anyways, we'll make our call around 3-4PM.

What's everyone else in this neck of the wood doing?

I'll check in when I take a break.

[Sam Cree]

Going to have a nap. Will put up the rest of my shutters in a little while. See you guys off and on. Hoping we will not be out of elec for too long. Some trees already got a pruning by Katrina, if that helps at all.

Was listening to an FPL lady on the radio yesterday, she was saying, "trees can topple and fall on our power lines, which will cause them to fall, which in turn will cause them to fail..." on and on, was driving me crazy. Why she couldn't just say "trees fall on power lines," those 5 words would be enough. OTOH, she did have a charming latin accent.

[laz]

AccuWeather talks about it in an article, saying Wilma and Alpha might merge. When I first saw the headline, my first thought was, "Boy, is Fred gonna be jealous." LOL

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the update. Please check in when you can, and take care.

[Sam Cree]

I have some friends in Boca. They probably have their shutters up by now, they grew up in Miami, are fairly used to hurricanes.

Best of luck to you.

[steveegg]

Finally got the last 4 eye-fixes from the VDMs plotted. They've been noticing what appears to be an eyewall replacement (outer eyewall between 60 and 70 nm wide, inner one or reminants about 15-20 nm wide).

Position at 1:28 am EDT - 21 49N 86 48W
Position at 3:06 am EDT - 21 56N 86 42W (motion 39 degrees at 6.3 mph)
Position at 4:05 am EDT - 21 58N 86 36W - this fix is not as tight as the others, so I'll toss this one out
Position at 5:17 am EDT - 22 11N 86 31W (motion from the 3:06 fix 34 degrees at 9.5 mph)

Average motion over the last 3:49 - 36 degrees at 8.1 mph. She's coming, and coming quick.

[NautiNurse]

The Katrina tree pruning will absolutely be a benefit. Same happened last year with Frances shearing off a lot of the pecan tree. Much less damage when Jeanne rolled through.

[LBKQ]

Hey. I thought you were going to get some sleep!?