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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
Surely there couldn't have been a s-l-o-w-e-r hurricane than Wilma on record.
Smallest eye? Only 2 nm at one point.
There was a storm named Elena that stalled in the Gulf off the west coast of Florida, but I don't know for how long.
Wilma ain't no hurricane. She's a pokeycane.
http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/HG.4.html
This says three days stalled...but it was off coast when it stalled, so it just deluged the area, and caused tidal surge and erosion.
What about Ophelia?
Don't think any of the Flintstones qualify, but Bubba had a couple of interns named Bred. Maybe that will help.
It's kinda weird that she's just sittin'...almost doing nothing but...
..and yet within 48 hours (according to the prognosticators)...she will be in, through and outta Florida and working her way up the eastern seaboard.
Last night, she was sitting doing nothing. Today, she's been on the move. The center is now off the coast and over the GOM.
I noticed in the latest loop that she seems to be intensifying...at least I'm starting to see more read in the circulation. But I can't figure out how it's supposed to be over here and on the east coast of Florida by Monday.
Time will tell.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
Hurricane Frances last year was definitely a pokeycane. She stalled long enough over Stuart FL, rescue crews had time to get out during the eye and rescue folks where roofs had collapsed. Frances wasn't quite as slow as Wilma.
Just finished the first part of Graces costume...
Yup. The center is now over water, and she'll be gaining strength overnight. She's refueling for her trip to Florida. I expect her to be Cat 3 again by midday tomorrow.
It's unbelievable in one way, I can't imagine having one park overhead for that long, but predictable in another.
When they pass from the sub-tropics, where the prevailing winds are east to west, into the temperate zone, where the prevailing winds reverse, they often sit, undecided, until something comes along to give them a push and get them moving again. Stalls at or near the furthest west point in their track are a regular occurrance, to the detriment of anyone who is nearby when it happens.
Good catch. Wilma certainly has increased convection in the last frames. Yikes.
"hmmmm...I think we may need some more comforting tunes here tonight."
Sweet Hour of Prayer
LOL!!
Hate say it, but Florida is becoming better known as, Flurricane.
at 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A Hurricane Warning is also now in effect along the Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East Coast from Jupiter Inlet southward...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuba provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.
At 11 PM EDT...a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands... Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the Florida East Coast north of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for this area Sunday morning.
At 11 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of Florida from north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 86.9 west or about 50 miles... 85 km north of Cancun Mexico. This is also about 375 miles... 605 km...west-southwest of Key West Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the north near 3 mph... 6 km/hr. A turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Sunday. This motion should bring the center away from the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Wilma could again become a major hurricane on Sunday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km. An automated station at the Isla mujeres Mexico recently reported sustained winds of 53 mph... 86 km/hr... with a gust to 69 mph... 111 km/hr.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 ft above normal tide levels is possible along the southwest Florida coast and near and to the south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula and the nearby islands should subside as Wilma moves away.
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to propagate into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight and Sunday.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...21.8 N... 86.9 W. Movement toward...north near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Beven
I swear these are the longest NHC advisories in their history.
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