Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Category

Wind Speed

Barometric Pressure

Storm Surge

Damage Potential

Tropical
Depression

< 39 mph
< 34 kts

Minimal

Tropical
Storm

39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts

Minimal

Hurricane 1
(Weak)

74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts

28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more

4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m

Minimal damage to vegetation

Hurricane 2
(Moderate)

96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts

28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb

6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m

Moderate damage to houses

Hurricane 3
(Strong)

111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts

27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb

9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m

Extensive damage to small buildings

Hurricane 4
(Very strong)

131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts

27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb

13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m

Extreme structural damage

Hurricane 5
(Devastating)

Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts

Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb

Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m

Catastrophic building failures possible

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 30
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 22, 2005

...Wilma about to emerge off the northeastern coast of Yucatan...
...New watches issued for the Florida Peninsula...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward...and along the
East Coast of Florida from Titusville southward.

 

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

 
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued along the West
Coast of Florida from north of Longboat Key northward to
Steinhatchee river... and along the East Coast of Florida from
north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.

 
At 5 PM EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar
del Rio.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of
Youth.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of
Matanzas.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 21.4 north... longitude 87.1 west... about 25 miles... 40
km northwest of Cancun Mexico... or about 405 miles... 650 km...
west-southwest of Key West Florida.

 
Wilma is moving toward the north near 2 mph... 4 km/hr.  A gradual
turn toward the northeast over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could regain category three status during the
next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide
levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... will
continue near and to the north of the eye along on the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula.

 
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 20 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total amounts
approaching 50 inches.  Rainfall across southern Florida including
the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.

 
Large swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells will likely affect portions
of the northern Gulf Coast tonight and Sunday.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.

 

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...21.4 N... 87.1 W.  Movement
toward...north near  2 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

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