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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
Sun temps Orlando 80/71..Tuesday temps Orlando: 68/50! Yikes! Big drop. Ch. 9 (WFTV) just said the GFS model is more north taking it through Ft. Myers, Polk and then Melbourne. But the other models stay south. As it stands, Orlando north may only get 39mph winds with slightly higher gusts per this local tv channel.
Good. I would stay too. Did you secure your folk's place?
I rinse out empty pop bottles (2 liter) and fill them, add six drops of chlorine bleach, and stack them in the crawl space. Between them and 5 gallon jugs, I have around 150 gallons laid back. There's another 50k gallons in the pond.
I want a hand pump for the well, but in addition to the $500 for the hardware, I'd have to dig a second well too, another $2K.
Maybe next year.
:-)
Yeah, a biggie. Most category five storms in one season.
I'm making brownies... Cause I'm worried about Nautinurse. :-)
On my hard drive, thanks.
Oh, the liberals are quite fond of pointing to Cuba's public record in hurricanes. While ignoring the fact that communist regimes have a long history of lying about disasters. Chernobyl, anyone?
Maybe Bismark? It might be a tad cold in December, but you won't have to worry about hurricanes and might get lucky and experience a really bitchin' blizzard.
Sure enough, and an obvious one too.
Looks like a record number of records.
I have nonpareils and malted milk balls for the critical hurricane chocolate cache. If those run out, then I'll break into the Halloween candy.
I've done the same thing with my tap water, but it already smells like it has the 6 drops of chlorine bleach in it, right from the tap. Do I need to add more?
I'm very sensitive to chlorine and don't want to overdo it. Just thinking of the proverbial *next year,* of course. Our TX season was over 10/15.
FLW (Famous Last Words)
...Center of Wilma moving off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...expected to re-intensify...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the West Coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward...and along the East Coast of Florida from Titusville southward...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. Hurricane warnings may be required for portions of this area later tonight.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the West Coast of Florida from north of Longboat Key northward to Steinhatchee river... and along the East Coast of Florida from north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 21.6 north... longitude 87.0 west... about 30 miles... 50 km north-northwest of Cancun Mexico... or about 390 miles... 630 km...west-southwest of Key West Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the north near 3 mph... 5 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northeast over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected during the next 24 hours.
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could regain category three status during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported the hurricane hunter was 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... will continue near and to the north of the eye along on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. This flooding should begin to subside as the center of Wilma moves away from Yucatan.
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.
Large swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight and Sunday.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...21.6 N... 87.0 W. Movement toward...north near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Beven
Halloween candy! The *bright* side of late October hurricanes! At least it's not "candy canes for the hurri-canes" - Christmas candy .... yet.
LOL! I forgot about the Halloween "Mr.TOL hid so I wouldn't find it before Halloween" candy that I found! woohoo! ;-)
Major hotels, blown out windows.
Glass is everywhere on the streets and it floats.
Some kind of blow frong is pissed and spitting at everyone. (I had no clue about this).
It seems as if there are no fatalities in Cancun as most people went high and mid in the hotels.
Hotels in downtown Cancun let the poorer people stay with them to get above ground water.
Ground water in downtown Cancun was only a foot.
The biggest danger was the wind and the signs flying around.
The marina at Tortugas is gone and so is Fat Tuesdays Restaurant.
There is no observation yet of the hotels at the south end of the island. Will advise when I hear something.
Between the town of Cancun and Kuklakan Shoppin Center is a mess. Kuklakan Mall had to be evacuated and people scramed to higher ground.
Funny ending from his call. Father Alverez said, No Church Tomorrow.
Good... At least you are stocked up on essentials! My brownies have extra walnuts... Yum!
The 8pm intermediate advisory has the pressure at 959 mb.
Looking at convection, and at the pressure starting to drop, it looks like Wilma is starting to re-intensify before it gets fully back out over the Gulf.
But I think it will be like Isabel now - it's got a big loosely-wound eye - and I would guess it will not get stronger than a lower-end Cat 3. But that big eye also means a large windfield and a lot of surge - against a coast vulnerable to such. So it's going to be a very interesting couple of days - let's hope it doesn't ramp up much in the Gulf.
Ok, I'll bite... What is a blow frong? Some kind of plant, an angry frog or a fish? LOL!
They evac'ed nearly 500,000 people into Havana in 10-12 hours. You know, we might have been able to do the same in Houston if we'd done it with pistoles and AK-47s or whatever Russian guns the cubanos use.
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