I learned all that in entry-level Economics (actually, it was Economics 110 - Intro to Microeconomics). It's called a supply shock and this has been a textbook example so far.
It would be well to notice (as the idiots in the financial ''press'' and the willfully dishonest jokes infesting the LSM have not, to date) that this year's energy mkts never did experience a supply shock; the threat of one was what created an enormous push-forward in demand. From July to current date, stocks on hand (excluding SPR) have remained higher than last year, 2 yrs ago, and 3 yrs ago.
And, as I think we can agree, we're seeing quite a good deal of demand destruction over the past month or so. If we should be fortunate enough to have a mild winter, particularly in the Northeast, and are able to repair, say, 97-98% of GOM pipe by, say, Feb-Mar, we can easily see $40.00-$42.00/bbl by April. Not saying we will see that level...but it's perfectly possible if events fall right.
BTW, CONGRATS! to you and Cyborg!