[usafsk]

Riddled with misinformation. The author states that NK has ICBMs with nuclear capabilities. Complete crap. To be effective against the US an ICBM must be launchable without notice. NK's unreliable Topo Dong family of missiles requires a liquid fueled stage, which requires loading. We know where the Topo's are and will destroy the facilities and any missiles on the pads.

The NKs best shot will be an opening arty barrage of chemical weapons, if they dare. This will be regime suicide, as it will immediately drag the ROK forces in to the fight. The vaunted NK arty emplacements have not moved in 20 years. They might be in caves, but they are vulnerable to air strikes and counter-battery fire.

The NK forces will be decimated if they leave their garrisons and cross the DMZ. Their is little manuever room in the ROK, so they will be wiped out by air power. Would such a war be bloody? Oh yeah, like WWII in Europe compressed into a 30 day time frame. The intensity would be unbelievable, but the outcome would be swift. The NK regime would collapse quickly and many troops, having spent years being starved and brain washed, would desert once they cross ed the DMZ.

Any war on the Korean peninsula will be sobering, but I would expect the ROK army to be able to handle the NK army with our support from the air. Remember, NK is working with weapons and systems that are old, Soviet derivatives. Other than popping off a few random Hiroshima-sized nukes, they've got little to work with. Besides, Kim is a survivor. He's not interested in upsetting his pampered lifestyle.

[va4me]

This will be regime suicide

That's the key - is there any evidence that this regime is suicidal? This isn't Al Qaeda after all.

[ASA Vet]

The NK forces will be decimated if they leave their garrisons and cross the DMZ.

I doubt we'd settle for 10%.

[epluribus_2]

>>> Kim is a survivor

I can just see Christane Amanpour describing him as "defiant" at his trial in Soul after the war where the media and euros, chinese, and russkies line up to oppose the american aggression. Oh, BTW, no WMD will be found in the entire peninsula so they must never have been there.

[doc30]

The NK regime would collapse quickly and many troops, having spent years being starved and brain washed, would desert once they cross ed the DMZ.

I agree with most of your post, but I'm not so sure about the psychology of NK's troops. They sound more like the Japanese in WWII - fanatic support for a god-like leader.

[19th LA Inf]

the US has 70 KH-11 spy satellites hovering over North Korea

I believe all of the half-dozen or so KH-11s that were actually orbited in the 1970-80 period are now "hovering" at the bottom of the Pacific, replaced by much better stuff.