Wilma Forecast Track Models Have "Completely Collapsed Today"

SKEETOBITEWEATHER ^ | October 19, 2005

[PJ-Comix]

Copy of official data

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.7N 83.7W 140 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W 65 KT

 

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[PJ-Comix]

This MIGHT be GOOD NEWS for Florida. You Hurricane Junkies can probably interpret this better than me but it looks like a SIGNIFICANT change in Wilma's projected track is coming soon.

[spokeshave]

Must have used a big nail for fuse in the hurricane generator

[nralife]

Yea, I'm waiting for the short-hand version, too.

[null and void]

This MIGHT be GOOD NEWS for Florida. You Hurricane Junkies can probably interpret this better than me but it looks like a SIGNIFICANT change in Wilma's projected track is coming soon.

...straight to New Orleans...

[Sub-Driver]

reminds me of the Kerry campaign. all over the place.

[BreitbartSentMe]

Anybody have this translated in English??

[PJ-Comix]

It took me a while to find this. When I heard the National Hurricane Service news conference at about 4:45 PM today they were talking about this change in their forecast models. I haven't been able to find anything on the Web about this until just now. I'm sure we will hear much more about this by tomorrow morning.

[PJ-Comix]

Could you translate this, Nautinurse?

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

"Wilma Forecast Track Models Collapse...?"


I dunno. Those Flintstones didn't know much more about the weather than our contemporary meteorologists....

[Dan Nunn]

Haha, beautiful. Bush better fix it quick or Farrakhan might get suspicious. Then again, he probably already knows what's going to happen as the 'UFOs' told him so.

[FMBass]

"Anybody have this translated in English??"

Yep, it means "we ain't got a clue!"

[dirtboy]

Anybody have this translated in English??

Yeah. The models had been trending in the same general direction, like a flock of geese.

Now, they're like a covey of quail.

Translation - they're really not sure where this is going to go, or even if it is going to go anywhere - it might just drift about without any solid steering currents. And if that takes it over any land mass, you're talking catastrophic flooding.

But that would be over Cuba or the Yucatan.

[BreitbartSentMe]

Damn, it seems like Karl Rove can't do anything right these days!!!

[johnmecainrino]

Wilma will not hit Florida because it will not be picked up by the low coming down from the great lakes.

Wilma was to be picked up by the low because the models had Wilma further north at this point.

Wilma now is in no man's land and will probably hit Mexico then go inland and then meander back to Cuba in about 5 days.

[PJ-Comix]

I dunno. Those Flintstones didn't know much more about the weather than our contemporary meteorologists....

It's strangely comforting to see professional meteorologists come up with completely erroneous forecasts.

[gondramB]

Yep.

Here is a page that shows the different models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

One shows it hitting southern Mexico a few for norther Florida some for middle Florida and a few for southern Florida.

Its gonna make preparation tougher.

[NautiNurse]

Here you go

[PJ-Comix]

Translation - they're really not sure where this is going to go, or even if it is going to go anywhere - it might just drift about without any solid steering currents. And if that takes it over any land mass, you're talking catastrophic flooding.

This sounds like a repeat of Hurrican Mitch in 1998. The meteorologists were off in their forecast track back then too.

[Tarpon]

We ain't got a clue, but someone is going to get a whooping, we think.

[PJ-Comix]

I LIKE the two forecast tracks (BAMS and BAMM) that show it doing a sharp U-Turn and moving East well to the South of Cuba.