[steveegg]

For what it's worth: The NHC track map for 11 AM EDT now has Wilma touching the Yucatan Peninsula (track adjusted west from the 5 AM), and now the Florida track crosses right over Lake Okeechobee, a slight adjustment to the north from the 5 AM. So: The closer it gets to Yucatan, the closer it gets to Tampa?? Is that a fair inference?

Not necessarily. Using the current suite of computer models, the NHC track is currently following the GFDL model. That indicates a sideswipe of the Yucatan Peninsula and landfall somewhere around Cape Coral.

The other models agree with the Yucatan sideswipe, with the exception of UKMET, which has her plowing through the Yucatan Peninsula. The models also diverge on where the US landfall will be. LBAR is currently indicating a Tampa-area landfall, NHC90 (which has been literally all over the map) is suggesting a trip through the Keys and a grazing of the far southeast tip of Florida, and the BAM family and UKMET is suggesting landfall at the northwest corner of the Everglades.

[SE Mom]

Good grief, Max Mayfield..while always a reassuring and calm presence..certainly got my attention with his news conf.

There is going to be a storm surge on the Florida Gulf coast that sounds nasty.

[KC Burke]

Hey Steve-O

I know that storm surge potential is governed by pressure gradiant but I don't know what part high forward speed plays in the equation. Does a Cat 4 gradiant moving a 35 knots carry forward a bigger or smaller surge than a Cat 4 moving at ten knots?