Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[blam]

"FEMA has volunteers working these days."

I think they're private contractors hired by FEMA. They're still working around here(Mobile)...even at night.

[mjwise]

Wow, that's amazing. It goes from looking like a Cat 1 hurricane to a major hurricane monster in just a handful of frames over a few hours. Awe-inspiring

[Termite_Commander]

Just in from TWC... Winds up to 110 MPH... Pressure down to 944 Millibars...

[steveegg]

They're quick with the advisories this time; we're up to 110-mph winds -

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2005

...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major
hurricane in a few hours...

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Watch southward to Punta gruesa.  A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Punta gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 16.8 north...longitude  82.1 west or about
185 miles... 295 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about
405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving generally toward the west-northwest near  8 mph
...13 km/hr.  A turn toward the northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...with Wilma becoming a major hurricane later tonight and
possibly becoming a category four hurricane later on Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 155 miles...250 km.  NOAA buoy 42057 recently reported sustained
winds of 50 mph... 81 kh/hr...with a gust of 58 mph... 94 km/hr.

Estimated minimum central pressure is  945 mb...27.91 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. 

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...16.8 N... 82.1 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Termite_Commander]

Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye. Reports from the Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter investigating Wilma between 19z and
23z indicated a 7-8 N mi wide eye...with the central pressure
dropping from 970 mb to 954 mb in 3 hr 14 min. The maximum
flight-level winds measured by the aircraft at 850 mb were 101 kt.
Since that time...satellite imagery shows increased organization...
with a ring of cold tops of -80c to -87c surrounding the eye.
Satellite intensity estimates are 102 kt from TAFB and SAB...and 90
kt from AFWA. Based on this and extrapolation of the last aircraft
data...the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. This may be
conservative.
The initial motion is the 12 hr motion of 285/7...although for the
past several hours the eye has been moving almost due west and
perhaps a little slower. Wilma is south of a mid/upper-level ridge
extending from northern Mexico eastward to southern Florida...and
southeast of a low-level ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Large-scale models agree that the ridges should weaken during the
next 36-48 hr as an upper-level low centered over northwestern
Arizona moves northeastward and then eastward. The ridges should
collapse completely as a deep layer trough develops over the
eastern United States after 72 hr. This combination should cause
Wilma to move generally northwestward for 48 hr or so...then turn
northward...then recurve into the westerlies after 72 hr. All
model guidance generally agrees on this scenario...although there
is some spread on the exactly where Wilma will recurve between the
left-most GFDN and right-most UKMET. The new forecast track is
adjusted somewhat to the left for the first 48 hr based on the
current position and motion...with the remainder of the forecast
track similar to the previous advisory in agreement with the model
consensus. It should be noted that the models do not completely
agree on how the eastern U. S. Trough will evolve...and these
differences could make a significant difference in what parts of
Florida Wilma will ultimately affect.

The intensity forecast has become more complicated. The current
rapid intensification and favorable environment should bring Wilma
to category four status in the next 24 hr...and it would not be a
surprise to see it reach category five before it bottoms out.
However...SSM/I data shows that the convection with the eyewall
covers a very small area...with a distinct dry moat already present
outside the eyewall. Outside of that is a broken convective band
that aircraft data shows is associated with an outer wind maximum.
Thus...it appears likely that Wilma will go through a concentric
eyewall cycle during the next 24-48 hr...and since the inner eye is
so small there could be notable weakening until the outer eyewall
contracts. Since these cycles are hard to time...the intensity
forecast will hold at 125 kt from 24-48 hr. When Wilma moves into
the Gulf of Mexico...it should encounter slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures and gradually increasing vertical shear. This
should cause a slow weakening...although it is probable that Wilma
will still be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida
Peninsula.
The NOAA g4 jet flew its first synoptic surveillance mission on
Wilma this evening...and it will be interesting to see the impact
on the 00z model runs.
Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/0300z 16.8n 82.1w 95 kt
12hr VT 19/1200z 17.2n 83.1w 110 kt
24hr VT 20/0000z 18.1n 84.2w 125 kt
36hr VT 20/1200z 19.2n 85.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 21/0000z 20.4n 85.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 22/0000z 23.0n 85.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/0000z 26.0n 81.0w 90 kt...inland
120hr VT 24/0000z 33.0n 72.0w 75 kt


$$

[NautiNurse]

Here is my official positive outlook for this storm:

I would rather be without electricity mid-October than during the extreme heat, humidity and mosquitos of July, August, and September.

[steveegg]

Here is my official positive outlook for this storm:

I would rather be without electricity mid-October than during the extreme heat, humidity and mosquitos of July, August, and September.

Very true :-)

[blam]

"I don't have a generator. Solar panels instead. Living on the water, a flooded generator will do as much good as blown away solar roof panels."

Do you expect to get flooded?

I'm presently watching a program of the Coast Guard rescuing people in NO during Katrina. Some won't leave...copter pilot says to swimmer we're running out of gas, no long conversations, lol.

[Termite_Commander]

and it would not be a surprise to see it reach category five before it bottoms out.

Wasn't Bastardi saying this on Cavuto this afternoon?

[Termite_Commander]

Good point. =)

[don-o]

Hear that.

I apologize and ask your forgiveness. Keeping track is a good thing. I may have took it wrong.

[NautiNurse]

...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major hurricane in a few hours...
Movement toward west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds 110 mph. Minimum central pressure 945 mb.

[NautiNurse]

...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major hurricane in a few hours...
Movement toward west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds 110 mph. Minimum central pressure 945 mb.

[STARWISE]

Gawd ..nn .. this is horrendous .. the size and the predicted path.... the mb at 945. Holy God .. I just pray all are safe in her path. I know it's early, but is it looking to come in south of Sarasota again?

[blam]

"When you fly over Central and South Central Florida, there are still thousands of roofs covered by ragged blue tarps even now!"

Same over here too. Some new roofs from Ivan were lost during Katrina.

[dirtboy]

11pm advisory out. 110 mph, and the forecast track has it as a Cat 4 in 24 hours.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Yeah, I am with you on that. Days cooling in next few weeks. So it certainly is better than August here. This storm is developing way to fast for me. Going to have my midweek prayer group tomorrow night pray against it. If that does not work. I plan to stand outside my closed front door and do a Fred Flintstone. "WILMA", as I pound on the door.LOL.

[onyx]

I'm getting worried here. Where is Wilma in relation to Grand Cayman?

She was 185 miles south of the island. That was acccording to the Cayman Compass at 8:00PM.

[Peach]

I guess our plans to go to Florida tomorrow for a week wasn't such good planning after all.

We'll be in Jacksonville and Amelia Island so I think we'll be okay, but I'll check in here while away to see what the latest reports are.

[NautiNurse]

Do you expect to get flooded?

As long as the storm passes to the south of Tampa Bay, I don't expect flooding.