By LEE KEATH
08:15 PM EDT - Oct 16, 2005
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq's landmark constitution seemed assured of passage after initial results Sunday showed that a strong push by minority Sunni Arabs to veto fell short, marking a major step in the attempt to establish a democratic government that could set the stage for the eventual withdrawal of foreign troops.
Opponents failed to secure the necessary two-thirds No vote in any three of Iraqi's 18 provinces, according to counts that local officials provided to The Associated Press.
In the crucial central provinces with mixed ethnic and religious populations, enough Shiites and Kurds voted to stymie the Sunni bid to reject the constitution.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani issued a decree setting Dec. 15 for Iraqis to go to the polls again, this time to elect a new parliament. If the constitution indeed passed, the first full-term parliament since Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003 will install a new government by Dec. 31.
If the charter failed, the parliament will be temporary, tasked with drawing up a new draft on which to vote.
But the outcome could further divide the nation, with many Sunnis fearing the new decentralized government will deprive them of their fair share in the country's vast oil wealth. Large numbers of Sunnis voted No, and some of their leaders were already rejecting the apparent result.
"If the constitution was passed, the attacks will definitely rise against the occupation forces, and the security situation is going to be worse," said Sheik Abdul-Salam al-Kubaisi, a cleric with the influential Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars, which government officials accuse of links to the insurgency.
Five U.S. soldiers were killed Saturday by a bomb in Ramadi, a hotbed of militants west of Baghdad, the military announced.
President George W. Bush congratulated Iraqis on the referendum, which across the country saw few attacks and no deaths of voters in violence, and said the new constitution was a victory for opponents of terrorism.
"The vote today in Iraq is in stark contrast to the attitude, the philosophy and strategy of al-Qaida, their terrorist friends and killers," Bush said.
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew called the referendum "a milestone in Iraq's democratic development."
"The number of Iraqis who went to the polls is a testament to the spirit of the Iraqi people and their commitment to Iraq's future, despite repeated attempts by insurgents to derail Iraq's democratic transition," Pettigrew said in a statement.
"Canada will continue to support the establishment of a peaceful and prosperous Iraq."
Pettigrew also said he was pleased to hear initial reports from the International Mission for Iraqi Elections, headed by Canada's Chief Electoral Officer Jean-Pierre Kingsley, "congratulating Iraq's Electoral Commission on having done a tremendous job in a short time under very challenging circumstances."
On Sunday, U.S. military helicopters, Humvees and armoured vehicles were helping transport the last ballot boxes from polling stations to counting centres in the provincial capitals.
The centres make initial counts, then were to truck the ballots to Baghdad for the final tallying, which was likely to begin on Monday and to last into Tuesday.
Provinces in the south, where most of Iraq's Shiite majority are concentrated, racked up big Yes numbers, over 90 per cent in favour in most places. Results were not yet available from Kurdistan, but the Kurdish community strongly supports the charter.
Still, despite a call by their top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to support the charter, Shiite participation in the south was far lower turnout than parliament elections in January, when huge numbers of Shiite voters, more than 80 per cent, celebrated as they went to the polls to mark their new dominance of the country.
Between 54 and 58 per cent of voters showed up Saturday in most parts of the south, according to UN elections chief Carina Perelli. The drop could reflect a belief that the constitution's victory was a sure thing or a vein of discontent among Shiites with their leaders in the government.
"Why should I care? Nothing has changed since we have elected this government: no security, no electricity, no water," said Saad Ibrahim, a Shiite resident of Baghdad's Karrada district who passed on voting.
"The constitution will not change that. The main issue is not getting this constitution passed, but how to stop terrorism." The Sunni No campaign appeared to have made the two-thirds threshold in Anbar province, the vast western Sunni heartland; and Salahuddin, where Sunnis hold a large majority and as many as 90 per cent of voters cast ballots.
But in two other provinces where Sunni Arabs have only slim majorities - Ninevah and Diyala - the Yes vote won out.
Sunni leaders responded angrily, some of them saying they suspected fraud and pointing the finger at American officials and the Shiite parties that dominate the government.
"There is no doubt that America has interfered in the process, since they and the Shiite government are supervising the whole operation, and since both want this draft to pass," al-Kubaisi said.
Although U.S. officials played an intense role in mediating negotiations over the draft constitution, they had no role in the counting process, run by an Iraqi elections commission.
Still, many Sunnis expressed helplessness in their new status as the weaker party in a nation they once dominated under Saddam.
"Whatever happens or will happen in politics has nothing to do with the will of the people. It comes from the political elite who run Iraq along with the Americans out of the Green Zone in Baghdad," said Zuhair Qassam al-Khashab, a mathematics professor in Mosul who voted No.
Sunni Arabs turned out in force in some areas Saturday, a stark contrast to January's elections, which they boycotted because they believed the political process was giving unfair power to the Shiite majority.
That move cost them politically, leaving them with a minuscule presence in parliament.
One man who voted Yes in Mosul said his fellow Sunnis should campaign hard for the Dec. 15 vote.
"We have to move through this period to the next stage, and we can do it by organized dialogue," said Ayad Abdul Razzaq, 45.
That is the reaction U.S. and Iraqi leaders are hoping for, and the Shiite-dominated government insisted it would make room for the Sunnis.
"We know that there is a level of polarization," said Laith Kubba, the chief government spokesman.
"Iraq is one big family, and we know that if a part of the family is not happy we cannot live in the same house."
The Canadian Press, 2005