U.S Health Secretary Warns of Flu Pandemic

AP - via Drudge ^ | Oct 10, 2005 | GRANT PECK

[VRWCTexan]

The likelihood of a human flu pandemic is very high, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt warned Monday as he sought Southeast Asian cooperation to combat the spread of bird flu.

Leavitt and the director of the World Health Organization are touring Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to seek their collaboration in preparing for the anticipated public health emergency linked to the H5N1 strain of the disease.

That strain has swept through poultry populations in many parts of Asia since 2003 and jumped to humans, killing 65 people, mostly through direct contact with sick fowl.

While there have been no known cases of person-to-person transmission, World Health Organization officials and other experts have been warning that the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people. In a worst-case scenario, millions could die

[VRWCTexan]

The feds seem to be working overtime to either warn or "scare"?

[mosquitobite]

Or induce us to prepare. I mean, we saw what happened in Katrina. Are you going to wait for the government to bring you supplies if they quarantine & house bound us?

[PositiveCogins]

"While there have been no known cases of person-to-person transmission, World
Health Organization officials and other experts have been warning that the virus could
mutate into a form that spreads easily among people. In a worst-case scenario, millions
could die. "

millions could die. Out of a world population oh what 6 billion. Assuming that's world wide and not the US. Also assuming that most of the death would be in impoverished and developing countries I would estimate about 300 deaths in the US. Of course that would be over the normal deaths caused by the normal flu.

[DMinus]

i'm pretty torn between being a silly alarmist and having some deep concern about the prospects of this... while the alarmists have been wrong lots of times before on outbreaks, this one seems pretty real.... so in other words, not sure what to think of it yet.

but if a tree falls in the woods, does it make a sound? especially when we're busy arguing about harriet miers, et al? the number of posts here about this topic tells me just how much we could care less about this (possibly) impending disaster.

[PositiveCogins]

"Whether or not H5N1 is the virus that will ultimately trigger such a pandemic is
unknown to us," he said at a news conference. "The probability is uncertain. But the
warning signs are troubling. Hence we are responding in a robust way."
It aint no flu thats gona kick our ass'. It's going to be something with a long incubation period, airborne and a low survival rate. Something thats hits with no warning. On the other hand there's no telling what this bug (H5N1) may
mutate into if someone's tampering with it. I seem to recall an article that stated China were treating poultry with our latest antibiotics.

[abigkahuna]

I know what you mean. As I posted elsewhere--the president held a meeting this past wekend with the heads of the major drug firms...Very astonishing. Normally something like that would be held by the head of HHS.

That and the talk about using the military for a quarintine. Once again very astonishing...

Is there something brewing that we don't know about, or don't know about...?

[ExSES]

Assuming that's world wide and not the US. Also assuming that most of the death would be in impoverished and developing countries I would estimate about 300 deaths in the US. Of course that would be over the normal deaths caused by the normal flu.

FYI... there are approximately 20,000 flu-related deaths in the US annually. The vast majority involve individuals is poor health or immunologically impaired (AIDS, etc.).

Avian flu viruses tend to be far more deadly for the young and healthy since they use your immune system against you. Who knows what strain will hit and when but, it will not be without substantial results, even here in the US!

[jec41]

I would estimate about 300 deaths in the US. Of course that would be over the normal deaths caused by the normal flu.

On average 36,000 die in the US each year from the flu. In a light Pandemic such as the Hong Cong flu in the late 60's over 60,000 died. We lost more in 1918 to the flu than were killed in both WWI and WWII. 300 would not be a pandemic. By the way hospitals would not take you if you had the Hong Cong flu in the 60's.

[silverleaf]

Other press accounts do mention that human-to-human transmission has occurred, and have indicated that the bird flu is not as deadly when contracted from another humans as when contracted directly from a bird. So it does not seem we are being given the straight story.

From gleaning other press reports, it seems that since human-to-human transmission of avian flu has probably occurred, the fear now is that someone will be infected with both the bird flu and also another normally more infectious and easily spread flu, the two will combine in that carrier to mutate into a combined deadly easily spread strain, and then we face a pandemic.

I also noted the reports that last week when bird flu was detected in Turkey, the govt ordered birds killed...and also ordered the village dogs to be killed. Reports here of a new deadly "dog flu" have not been connected to avian flu.

And that in Romania half a million people in bird flu affected area are being given regular flu vaccine which, even if not effective against a new strain, is apparently thought by the Romanian govt to offer some boost in immunity.

Now for the real conspiracy ping. Where I live in Maryland, birds of all types have all but disappeared over the past month or so. The silence where bird song used to fill the air before dawn and during the day, the skies and tree in my yard, the power lines where the birds typically gather....all empty and silent. Anyone else notice this happening?

[M1thumb]

That happens in Ohio every year about this time.

[DMinus]

"Where I live in Maryland, birds of all types have all but disappeared over the past month or so. The silence where bird song used to fill the air before dawn and during the day, the skies and tree in my yard, the power lines where the birds typically gather....all empty and silent. Anyone else notice this happening?"

maybe they flew south for the winter? lol... ;)

[Adiemus]

"World Health Organization officials and other experts have been warning that the virus could mutate..."

This reminds me of the chicken little fable, "the sky is falling!!!"

Why is the government propagandizing this so much?

[Defendingliberty]

"300 would not be a pandemic." It would be if Jeraldo was on the case....

[VRWCTexan]

I just watched what seemed to be a creditable doctor on the Factor - he stated that the US and the World Health Organization are trying to plan and prepare for the "worst case" - and that this is truly something to be concerned about - but not scared, as the "worst case" certainly might not occur.

[Salamander]

In western MD, there's virtually nothing flying around.

At this time of year there would normally be huge flocks of birds going overhead as they start migrating.

This year, zip.

The sparrows who've lived in my yard year-round for 15 years vanished in mid-summer and have not been seen since.

I keep putting food out for them as I've always done and nothing is eating it except for a rabbit, now and then.

Normally my yard looks like a Hitchcock movie but it's been virtually empty of birds for months, now.

[Misterioso]

What preparations can be made?

[mosquitobite]

Prepare as if you might need to be house bound for 6 months. If the flu hits, being around other people is the last place you'll want to be. There's a preparation thread here on FR somewhere.

[silverleaf]

Thanks for your mail. Yes, the squirrels are "gone missing", too, Normally this is their crazy time of year but now, I've seen only one squirrel. I live by the Chesapeake Bay. So we usually lots of birds, from gulls to song birds. I even had my own cardinal family that has lived in my yard for several years. Now. Nothing. Not even sparrows.

I thought it was the drought, but after a week of rain, only this morning did I hear one distant bird song. Not the usual riot of singing that accompanies rain in my area.

Every morning before I get out of bed, I really listen to bird songs, a promise I made to myself when my son died. So the absence of bird song in the trees around my home...and the absence of all the usual animal life everyone takes for granted...is very noticeable and somewhat eerie given what is predicted. So I wonder if an unannounced cull is underway...I have only seen one song bird carcass but didn't think much of it...until recently.

Soon we should be seeing the "honkers", Canadian geese, flying overhead in huge flocks heading south. Somehow I wonder if we will see any at all.

[Salamander]

I did a Google groups search and came up with this;

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.birds/browse_thread/thread/c7507384b24ccc92/1bb7d07ad0d69479?q=missing&rnum=7&hl=en#1bb7d07ad0d69479

Judging by what I'm reading, it seems to be a northeast/mid-atlantic "problem".

What this means, I have *no* idea.