[Jeff Head]

Well, initial hostilities with them will most probably center in the relatively close-in waters of the China Sea under the umbrella of that large air force. They will not venture out into blue water conflict with us for quite some time.

[JamesP81]

True. Their air force may be the reason why the USN and the USAF have been pushing to field the F-22. Against an air force so large, we will need a superior air-to-air combat aircraft.

This is mostly for show. It will not, initially, add any real substantive offensive power to their military since their large land based air force can reach Formosa anyway. This is little more than a political football for them. If hostilities start, we'll probably task a fast attack submarine or maybe a flight tactical aircraft to deal with it. That part of the battle will likely be anti-climactic. The part we need to worry about is defending our own carriers and air bases from their air power. And that brings us back to the F-22.

[sam_paine]

They will not venture out into blue water conflict with us for quite some time.

Agreed. So game out for me what happens after these "initial hostilities" that you seem to foresee the Chinese having some success at under cover of their local air cover.

How, for example, do you see them responding to a full-on blockade of their shipping by the USN, Royal Navy and Japanese DF? What does such a blockade do to the Chinese economy vs. the Rest of World?

Given world petrol distribution, and assuming best case partnering of India+Russia+China vs. the West, exactly how long does that last?

In other words, how can they attempt "close in" hostilities before the "quite some time" in the future when they can support a blue-water confrontation?