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I do believe they will try the political victory, putting many of their eggs in that basket, making it as costly for us to succeed militarily as possible and then waiting for an administration that may not be willing to pay that cost.

But for whom is it more important to sink the other side's carrier? Them or us?

I'd wager it's for them ... because in sinking one of our carriers they score an important political victory and it might just act as a military deterrance against a POTUS.

That means we can sit back on the defensive (maybe running some harassment ops to bait the ChiComs out ... offensive fighter sweeps and sub-launched TLAM "Doolittle-style" strikes) and pick them off as they come out to us.

The ChiCom's attempting to sit in the Strait in a defensive posture is a losing scenario for them, because beyond harassment attacks we won't be going after them offensively, en masse. They're the ones who have to achieve control the Strait ... we just need to deny them control of it. And that kind of attrition scenario favors our qualitative advantages.

The politcal victory would only come if they convinced a demop POTUS not to come to the ROC's aid at all, or with absolutely no staying power. With a Hillery or Kerry, that is very possible. That is what I am talking about.