The 2005 elections (Barone on NYC, New Jersey, Virginia, and CA Referendums)

US News & World Report ^ | October 9, 2005 | Michael Barone

[goldstategop]

The KABC-TV poll is interesting... I now think all four measures will pass by hefty margins and the California MSM will be stunned. They've written the Governor and the GOP off here as politically dead.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[skaterboy]

Looks pretty good but could be better...but Bloomberg is no pub

[goldstategop]

Bloomberg is a RINO.... but New Yorkers don't trust the Democrats. You would think with all of Bush's troubles, it would be a banner year for them. Apparently not.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[GVnana]

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger put several propositions on the California ballot. If passed, they will significantly reduce the institutional strength of the state's Democrats. … Turnout matters here...To me, this is the most fascinating and the highest-stake election this November.

Say it again Mr. Barone.

BTW I just started reading "Hard America, Soft America". Very interesing social analysis.

[goldstategop]

If the Democrats and the unions clobber Arnold but they can't defeat measures he champions.... it doesn't speak well of their real strength in California politics. What bears reminder is the Democrats and the media have urged voters to vote NO on 73-77. At the same time, California's liberal establishment have never offered anything in the way of a positive agenda. To put it crudely, they're still hoping to beat something with nothing.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[editor-surveyor]

"I now think all four measures will pass by hefty margins and the California MSM will be stunned."

From your lips to God's ears...

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

[birbear]

"Crime shot up during his term, and the city lost 1 million people in the 1970s."

Were there really a million murders in NYC in the 70's, are is this just a badly worded sentence?

[doug from upland]

Prop. 75 is the most important in California. It will rip the heart out of the evil unions.

[South40]

"I now think all four measures will pass by hefty margins and the California MSM will be stunned."

With the millions they've dumped trying to defeat them, I'd be just as happy to see the unions lose.

[GoBucks2002]

Were there really a million murders in NYC in the 70's, are is this just a badly worded sentence?

Nah, it just seemed like it. The "lost" refers to net population loss, mostly out-migration.

[goldstategop]

Either way, the unions will be broke in 2006. It reminds me of the old saying: "Be careful of what you wish for; you might get it." The unions have conflated their interests with that of California. And as people read their ballot pamphlets, its dawning on them that in the long run, the status quo is quite simply unsustainable. My local newspaper ran a story of how housing is beyond the reach of the middle class thanks to high prices. The Democrats and the unions are creating a state in which, if everything remains unchanged, will consist of people either extremely rich or extremely poor, with nothing left in between. Think about it.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[sandbox]

Re Corzine v. Forrester, one of the problems Senator Corzine is having is explaining why he wants to be Governor, since he is already a US Senator and multi-millionaire. Like, why bother? Forrester, on the other hand, talks like he wants the job.

[SFConservative]

Something is seriously hosed with the CA special election figures - the internal and KABC polling numbers are identical. The original author probably copied the html for the internal poll and forgot to replace the numbers with those for the KABC poll.

[Map Kernow]

I'm turning out to vote for the Props., but the unions already are bombarding the airwaves here with everything they've got to try to defeat them. It's going to be an irritating month, especially when I turn on the TV.

[paul51]

"I now think all four measures will pass by hefty margins and the California MSM will be stunned."

I hope so on all counts

[SFConservative]

Another thing that sadly makes the Survey USA numbers shown here suspect, is that the undecideds are absurdly low, even for likely voters, which is what these numbers represent.

I wish these were real but I kind of doubt it. If they are not real, the so-called pollsters should have been more adept at making things up so at least they look credible.

If they are real, then if people have their minds made up so firmly, so early, and with so little information in hand, they can be counted on to stick with their strong opinions through November 8. Yeah, right ...

[goldstategop]

I should remind every one - SurveyUSA was the only poll that got the 2003 recall election right - it forecast Arnold the winner. Every MSM poll predicted Cruz Bustamante the winner. So this one has a decent track record for accuracy. Right now, people are reading in their pamphlets the actual arguments not just the official ballot language that's shown up in MSM polls. And guess what? People are coming around to the view the measures are terrific. Expect the MSM to editorialize against the reforms and to lash out at those who support them. At the end of the day, they're still fighting with nothing and that is where they will be beaten soundly. Of course they don't see what's coming because my friends the MSM doesn't want to see what's coming and neither do the Democrats and the unions. That right then and there will be their downfall.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[RWR8189]

Survey USA is a solid pollster, they did well in 2004 and nailed the Recall election in CA.

Since they broke the poll down to likely voters the low number of undecideds is not that uncommon a month away from the election.

Wait for confirmation from another poll to be excited though.

Trust but verify is always a good model.