Lincoln Chaffee will do what it takes to keep his very liberal constituency supporting him. If a conservative candidate is demonized by the press (as I expect) then he will vote against that candidate, and he will pay NO price in the general election.
This is the whole trouble with these senators. Chaffee, Snowe, and Collins answer to their electorates, which are very liberal. That's why they can only support a non-paper trail conservative.
Others, like Hagel, McCain, and Lugar, are in safe seats or aren't up for reelection until 2010.
Some, like Voinovich, have gone mushy and cowardly because they are afraid of the press.
Voinovich you could maybe cowe into voting with the President. The rest would do what they darn well pleased, based on how advantageous it is to them.
Chaffee will no doubt have a more-conservative primary opponent. If that opponent has half a brain, he will force Chaffee to either commit to supporting Bush's nominees or losing in the primaries, which is what will happen if he does not. If he then turns around and votes against a Bush nominee, then he will lose the general election for lying.
And this is not just about elections, there are spending issues, earmarkes and other considerations like BRAC to be considered as well. Thune gave lots of senators ideas about how to win against the President. Dont think the President didnt learn from that little episode.