[ModelBreaker]

Perhaps, but another thing to consider is that Bush's pick here may affect who decides to retire in the next three years. If Bush managed to install a solid conservative, Ginsburg might be more apt to try to outlast Bush than if she sees someone more moderate.

This argument may be true but it is meaningless. Currently we have two clear originalist justices--Scalia and Thomas and maybe one more (Roberts). So at best 3. If Bush hits a home run with Miers, that makes it 4. The big difference will be when Stevens or Ginsburg go. That's the fifth key vote.

The point is, Bush HAS to hit a home run with all three appointments or there won't be much change in the court's stance except at the very margins. So trading a moderate today for a conservative tomorrow doesn't change the court much, even if Roberts turns out to be the best justice since sliced bread.

[Torie]

Roberts will be more like Justice Harlan, a cautious cerebral conservative, who favors narrow rulings. That is my guess. Harlan by the way is viewed by all sides as one of the 10 most distinguished justices to ever sit on the court.