Poll shocker: Goldwater, Napolitano tied

Phoenix Business Journal ^ | 10/5/05 | Mike Sunnucks

[BurbankKarl]

A new poll shows Republican prospects in the 2006 Arizona governor's race are not as bad as many business leaders and political insiders had thought.

The survey by Zogby International and the Wall Street Journal show Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano in a dead-heat with Republican Don Goldwater.

The Zogby/WSJ poll shows Napolitano with 47 percent of those surveyed and Goldwater with 45 percent. That spread is well within the poll's 4 percent margin of error and goes against conventional wisdom that Napolitano is a clear favorite for re-election.

Goldwater is the nephew of late U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater. His résumé includes working as a financial consultant in the private sector and serving as special events director for the Arizona Department of Administration. He also serves on the board of directors of the conservative Goldwater Institute think tank. A late August poll showed the conservative Goldwater ahead of Napolitano by 1 percentage point but also within the margin of error.

Napolitano leads other possible GOP challengers in the Zogby/Poll but Republicans hopes are buoyed by the fact that the governor gets no higher than 47 to 48 percent in potential matches with former Federal Highway Administration director Mary Peters, state Senate President Ken Bennett, former state Senate president John Greene and Marilyn Quayle (the wife of former vice president Dan Quayle).

Napolitano leads Peters (47-32); Bennett (47-36); Quayle (48-39) and Greene (47-33). The fact that Napolitano tops out at 47 and 48 percent against opponents with very low name recognition buoys Republican hopes.

"She's hit a ceiling," said Nathan Sproul, a Republican lobbyist and campaign consultant.

Sproul said most of the undecided voters in the surveys are Republicans and they will likely trend towards the GOP challenger next year. Republicans have a 140,000-voter registration edge in the state.

In the Zogby survey, Napolitano does well with Hispanics, urbanites, singles and those without strong religious beliefs.. Goldwater and other Republicans are more popular with Protestants, married couples with children, and investors.

Napolitano enjoys strong approval ratings in other polls and has also made inroads with business leaders in downtown Phoenix and within the state 's technology sectors. A number of top Republicans, including Scottsdale Congressman J.D. Hayworth, have opted not to challenge Napolitano.

[dynachrome]

Dunno about a poll that Zogby is involved in. Good news if true.

[flashbunny]

I guess the border emergency declaration didn't buy her enough points to offset her real stance on illegal immigration.

[Southside_Chicago_Republican]

So is Goldwater anything like his uncle?

[Racehorse]

Dunno about a poll that Zogby is involved in.

Yes sir.

I thought his reputation and credibility tanked.

Guess not.  Ah, the land of second and third and fourth . . . chances.  Or, maybe WSJ got what they paid for.

[normy]

If so you can bet the national Republicans will throw their support behind Dan Quayles wife.

[rocksblues]

So the Governor's veto of the states voter's overwhelming endorsement of restrictions on illegal aliens state entitlements meant a boost for her?

[dynachrome]

WSJ kept Zogby honest, maybe.

[thoughtomator]

More likely, this is setting up a baseline against which future poll manipulation can be done to show a precipitous drop in support for the Republican, to be done when the Democrat needs some assistance.

[Racehorse]

I surely do hope to believe the answer to your question is, "Yes."

[onyx]

I wonder who has the AZ ping list.

I'd love to hear what they think.

[cloud8]

> So is Goldwater anything like his uncle?

Mr. Conservative? The hero of my youth? Are Barry Goldwater's principles as vital as they were in 1964? You bet!!!

[SC33]

The GOP better come to their senses and back Goldwater.

[Don Corleone]

He's got my vote!

[SnakeGuy]

In the election that Napolitano won, she faced a republican challenger (Matt Salmon) who had been in a pretty tough primary challenge fight. In addition there were Indian gambling measures on the ballot that brought out many to the polls that normally stay home. Illegal immigration is a huge issue right now and is an issue Goldwater is very strong on, plus he has the name recognition. I think this will be a much tougher fight for Napolitano than many pundits think.

[Hildy]

I haven't really begun exploring Arizona politics..but already it looks like it's gonna be fun!

[CATravelAgent]

"The GOP better come to their senses and back Goldwater."

I really hope so. The GOP had a chance to back Bill Jones against Boxer in the last CA Senate election. There was no help at all!!!

[Fiji Hill]

AUH2O in 2006!

[Spiff]

This is a huge shocker. I hope it will take the state party leadership up. Even after Goldwater announced he was running, the pretended that there was no one in the race and they were still looking for an acceptable candidate. Elitist crap. They don't want a true conservative, but a mushy moderate. Hence, their continued quest for a candidate. I doubt they'll ever support Goldwater and the result will be another 4 years of Nappy. Salmon is going to do to Goldwater what the party did to him in 2002. Sad, really.