It's not guesswork. Bush would have asked Specter and McCain and the two Mainers and Chaffee. He Doesn't Have To Guess. He Didn't.
It is we who guess. I provide that analysis as what happens "if". He doesn't have to. They already told him. And note that list is not comprehensive. There could be another GOP Senator or two who is up for re-election who decides saying no to a hardline conservative is a more sure path to re-election.
The problem is, and has always been, that there would be ZERO Dem support for Luttig.
Again, this was not guesswork for Bush. We can't argue with a conclusion about how Senators will vote when he didn't have to guess and we do.
Bush shouldn't care what McCain and Specter say. They're not the president. They would have come around. Thomas would not be on the Supreme Court if it wasn't for Specter. Specter would have come around or been run off the chairmanship. McCain would have come around because he wants to be president.
Now, it would have taken some balls on the part of Bush to nominate Luttig or Jones. I mistakenly thought he had some.