Posted on 10/01/2005 7:36:05 AM PDT by NautiNurse
...Twentieth tropical depression of the season forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea... ...Tropical storm watch and warning issued for the Yucatan...
at 10 am CDT...1500z... the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta gruesa northward to Cabo Catoche.
At 10 am CDT... the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the broad center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 19.3 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 125 miles... 205 km... east-southeast of Tulum Mexico and about 110 miles... 175 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph ... 9 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However... the depression is still in the formative stage... so some erratic motion may occur. On the forecast track... this system is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall occurs... and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to assess the actual strength of the system.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches... will be possible across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...19.3 N... 85.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
yep - had to suspend planting the winter veggies with that storm quickly blowing in too. Fortunately, none of the avocados were knocked out of the tree.
I just wish I lived on the direct path to the water treatment plant. I would have lights already. They are going down the priority list and well I'm low on that list.
bookmark
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
...A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms... associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and an upper-level trough...is located a few hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated this morning... and upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive for tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days as this system moves westward. Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.
Forecaster Knabb"
Yes, bands from Stan, I guess. I could tell he was becoming a storm before I saw it on the WC, by the sudden strengthening of the easterlies here.
52,000 posts on Katrina is kind of stuning!
I finally took down a bunch of shutters, hope that wave to the east doesn't make me have to put them all back up. For one thing, they are mildewed, and handling them kills my sinuses for days. Have to get a better system.
000 WTNT35 KNHC 040858 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.8 N... 94.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$
I loved hearing the weather man a little while ago....
The low that was thought to go across So FL into the Gulf, , , ,
well we were wrong!
LOL
Not often we hear that.
Where are those duck shoes?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.