I can't find any fault with your thinking because I hold the same views. As I write about Z-man I have a lot of stuff flying through the head. We both have made mention on other posts as to his intentions in EU. And he is on the record as to saying soon he shall "start soon protecting muslims in EU",
so clearly their org has schedules in place for the future.
And surely France, Britian, Spain, Italy, Germany, Neaterlands, etc., know only to well he will strike. They read the same intercepts we see published by Z-man. So it continues to be a bit strange why they are not softneing up and joining in the fray. Of course Italy and Britain still have their troops in Iraq and will keep them there until agreement is meet when they should pull out. The only thing I would take a little exception with in your analysis and I realize you could adjust it with no problem without denigritaing your over all viewpoint(s) is that EU now is not so hostile toward us. They have after all been sending non-military folks in different capacities. And most probably starting in 2005 range we simply would rather they not send contingnets, where they hell are you going to put them all. The logistics, having to rapidly build up new bases to house their people etc., how they fit in from the ground view etc.. Logistics. Notice we have not demanded for NATO troops lead under a US commander to be implemented. It is real shame the Spanish had to pull their 3000 out. Because we really have a good mix, and enough. We are not fighting a conventional war. So at this point I don't think our relations with EU as a whole is that bad in respects to Iraq. They see what has been happening. And surely they know that the terrorist are in their country for years before we invaded Iraq. It is all political and posturing in my opinion. There is not one country in EU including all the border line countries that do not know perfectly well what the muslim terrorist groups have been up to for a number of years. They just did not want to get involved. Figured let the US take em out, and stabilize the country and we can play the political game. Hell Saddam had France basically blackmailed during the late 70's and 80's regarding oil. That is one reason why the French continued to give him nuclear support and built the Osirik nuclear facilities. They even folded and finally gave in and provided him with highly enriched fuel rods far in access of the acceptable level they needed to produce maximum power from that reactor. The list go on how he played with them and Italy etc., in exchange for getting low cost oil. At any rate, can't find anything wrong with your over all analysis.
Gotta hit the rack once again, do have a great Saturday.
I am not saying the EU wants us to leave Iraq, in fact I strongly think they don't given the current sitution a civil war and a failed state in the heart of the Middle East would prove an incredible training ground in which they can use to attack Europe and the leaders of Europe know this.
But, I am saying that most Europeans have enough active Bush hatred and support for the Sunni Arab community in the Middle East thanks to years of buisness dealings with them that the mass European public is not willing to actively and openly support the coalition effort in Iraq. The governments of Europe are doing about as much as they can given the political opinion Europeans have about Iraq. If a 911 occured in Europe that would change.
And, have a good evening.