"And, that most of those getting into Iraq are using routes that keep them under the protection of fundimentalist anti-Assad tribes, the picture is mixed."
With you. Asad has nothing to gain by openly supporting the insurgency. To many paper and mouth trails if his regime was to be taken out. Everyone would say. Aha so he did what the Americans have been accusing him of for two years. What you suggest simply makes sense. And they easily can get help from Syrian police and military folks who have latitude in now they operate.
As for Abu. I can easily see him dress as a women, face made up to look like some old hag, with the black bag over him.
Surely he has not walked about freely for a very long time. After he had to run his ass off from his car under the bridge and take off leaving his last laptop, weapons etc., he must be scared shitless to move about except under heavy guard and in the dark. That is the only way a snake like that is going to not have an extra hole in his head. For all we know he may live in prearranged spider holes like the Butcher did. Not so easy to locate under the best conditions. And since his protectors are probably few in number and loyal, it is going to be hard to locate him. He could be sitting in some swank hotel in Yemen for all we know. A short hop via. southern Iran by a private plane.
With you. Asad has nothing to gain by openly supporting the insurgency. To many paper and mouth trails if his regime was to be taken out.
One thing that has been clear for some time is that his regime is quite weak and he doesn't control alot of what goes on in his country.
Also, Remember that massive bunker that we found a couple months ago.
I would be very suprised if that is the only one in Iraq right now. I think Zarqawi is probably in Iraq or Syria right now, but I think he plans to really bail out if the Constitution and the December election come out well. Also, I think we will see Zarqawi activate his quite large European jihadi network he has set up over the past five years if the Constitution and the December elections come out well.
He has avoided directly ordering 911 type spectacular attacks on Europe even though Bin Laden has been putting pressure on him to do so. I am sure he has had a hand in a number of bombings like 3/11 and 7/7, but he is very careful to avoid taking credit or blame for the attacks. The reason for this is simple, he knows that he has a limited time to convince the US and European publics to bring the troops home and thus causing a civil war before the Iraqi Security Forces are strong enough to prevent it from happening.
A sectacular 911 style attack on Europe that is directly linked back to Zarqawi would immediatly halt European support for the Sunni insurgency. I believe a large number of Europeans support the insurgency by in large because they hate Bush and they have long term dealings with Sunni Arabs and don't want to see their power userped in a country they once ruled. I believe the same is true of most Arabs in the Middle East. If another 911 were to hit Europe and was ordered from Iraq, Z-man knows that the US and European publics would wake up and see the real threat. Al-Qaeda in Iraq only operates because enough in the Middle East, Europe, and the US see Z-man as a threat to the Shia in Iraq rather then the worldwide threat he actually is. And, one thing I have to say about Zarqawi is that he always knows the score when it comes to the media, he constantly quotes the Washington Post and the NY Times in his hour long rants.