I haven't read the newsletter but I can imagine how it would work. The more the base gets turned off, the more traction the left's constant attacks get. There's nothing to counterbalance it. Maybe that's why Bush apologized after NO got hit. The base isn't defending him. That's why the numbers continue to sink (unless it's polling fraud on an unprecedented scale). The numbers will likely turn around next year for the election, but how much will they stick to the candidates? Will they turn around enough? How much MORE damage will the Pres. do to himself and the party with his pandering to every Group that screeches loud enough, or threatens loud enough? He claims to not care about polls or the media, but he sure does dance to their tune. Except when the base complains. He's good at turning a deaf ear to us.
So if he comes out with a lukewarm nominee, watch the rats cheer for a day, and watch the polls continue to ebb away. He could get lower than Carter at this rate.
Actually, most of those polling units were wrong last election day so their credibility is in doubt. RASS was dead on and on average has had him at 45-48% consistently.
Currently, last I checked, they had him at 45%.
FOX was a consistent and accurate predictor last year, only usually about 2% lower than what the real result will be. Currently they have him at 45%.
Gallop infamously gave the race to Kerry last year, so I'm not a fan of them, but currently he has gone from 41% back up to 45%.
So, even in a poll I do not trust, his ratings have been rebounding.
You are correct that the base's opinion is all that matters. The base holds steady, his effectiveness holds steady. And given state races are largely base turnouts that define who the winner will be, if the base is motivated to turnout by the President we win the majority of contests given most are or lean conservative/Republican.
I do discount your contention the base isn't defending him. It's all we've been doing since, at least, Katrina and the ludicrous assaults on his heads.