Posted on 09/28/2005 6:31:52 PM PDT by wagglebee
NEAR MIRANSHAH, North Waziristan, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Pakistan
More than a year of intermittent talks with Osama bin Laden's clandestine network in Pakistan led to a 750-mile journey through territory forbidden to foreigners and two of the country's four provinces.
The UPI team, in native kameez shalwar dress, included a Pakistani media consultant and personal friend, who asked his name be withheld pending a meeting with bin Laden; a driver; our security chief; and a constantly changing member of the secret network, as we moved from one relay point to the next.
It soon became clear the operatives only knew where to meet us and where to hand us over to the next relay. The ultimate destination was a meeting and an interview with bin Laden. The last two days had been described as a two-day uphill walk.
Our security was in the hands of a former major in a Pakistani commando unit. He had fought with the mujahideen against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. After hearing where the next rendezvous was to take place, he told the driver when and where to stop. Dirt roads and trails off main roads frequently slowed us down to 10 miles per hour.
As we approached the place where we were to leave our Toyota Land Cruiser and begin trekking with backpacks up the foothills of a forbidding mountain range, word reached our escort that nearby militants had just slit the throats of three men accused of spying for America.
The incident occurred about 10 miles from Miramshah, district headquarters for north Waziristan. A note pinned on one of the corpses warned "anyone working as an American spy will meet the same fate." The dampening effect was immediate, but we reassured ourselves the ex-commando in charge would guarantee the bona fides of the two Americans.
The bad news came when the driver said he could not guarantee he would be waiting in the prearranged shelter when we returned a week to 10 days hence. That would leave us in decidedly unfriendly territory with no means of transport.
Prudence then became the better part of valor. Not only were we to walk at night along a narrow trail between interlocking fields of Pakistani army fire, but we also would have to return the same way only to find ourselves in hostile territory with no transportation.
The Pakistani army recently increased its Afghan border deployment from 70,000 to almost 80,000. We informed our major friend that a calculated risk had suddenly become a foolish one and we would be turning back.
Before entering North Waziristan from the Northwest Frontier Province, we had agreed if stopped, my assigned role, hunkered down at the back of the vehicle, was to be the Pakistani journalist consultant's deaf-mute uncle. This worked for a half-dozen checkpoints only because a post-monsoon downpour, with much lightning and thunder, left posts unmanned. Soldiers and police huddled under roadside tents and we kept driving.
Incidental intelligence picked up from some of our temporary escorts told us there were 15,000 foreign fighters in north and south Waziristan and that 2,500 Pakistani soldiers had been killed, not the 250 conceded by the army, in a major operation earlier this year.
Allowing for hyperbolic math, 1,500 foreigners – Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Chechens and Arabs – is probably closer to the real number. The number of Pakistani soldiers killed and wounded by al-Qaida appears to have been much higher than the official toll.
The foreigners are remnants of the once Afghan-based al-Qaida network that escaped from Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001 and the battle of Tora Bora in December. They have been living in tribal villages, protected by former members of Pakistan's Interservices Intelligence (ISI) agency who were once assigned to bin Laden and his Afghan training camps.
Between 1996, when Taliban completed its conquest of Afghanistan, and 2001, when Taliban was routed, several hundred ISI officers served in Afghanistan. They never agreed with President Pervez Musharraf's post-September 11, 2001, decision to ditch Taliban. Nine top Taliban leaders were trained in a Pakistani madrassa in Khattak, NWFP, under ISI supervision.
Today, Waziristan, north and south, is a wilderness of mirrors where former Pakistani intelligence officers encourage foreign guerrillas back into Afghanistan to join a resurgent Taliban. Veterans of the anti-U.S. insurgency campaign in Iraq, locals told our escorts, have been training al-Qaida veterans in roadside bomb-making and suicide bomber techniques.
Taliban bases in Waziristan seem to enjoy immunity. And guerrilla warfare in south and east Afghanistan is growing. President Hamid Karzai says, "We have to rethink the war on terrorism." His followers start rooting for the Iraqi insurgency.
Over the last three years, Mr. Musharraf has stated flatly Osama bin Laden is dead, later that bin Laden is definitely not in Pakistan and more recently that he is hiding in border regions between the two countries and the trail has gone cold.
Chief Army spokesman Gen. Shaukat Sultan admitted, "We are not into a manhunt. ... Our sole objective is not the capture of bin Laden. Our objective is to root out terrorism and we have progressed quite a lot." Pakistani soldiers are foreign occupiers in FATA. By treaty, they have not been allowed to enter tribal areas since creation of Pakistan 58 years ago.
CIA Director Porter Goss recently said he has an excellent idea where bin Laden is hiding. So do many others. The world's most wanted terrorist has a countrywide network in Pakistan.
It is our judgment at the end of this long trip, ISI knows exactly where he is. Escorts near our final driving destination said bin Laden has a portable dialysis machine and generator and gerrycans of fuel and water.
Musharraf loyalists do not believe in the durability of a close alliance with the U.S. past the capture or killing of bin Laden. Hence, the reluctance to conduct a manhunt in the jagged mountain range that forms the unmarked frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Mr. Musharraf's proposal for a barbed-wire fence along an unmarked, 1,200-mile border has little practical value. Six of the world's highest mountains are in the region. Pashtu tribes that straddle both sides of the border 20 miles deep would tear down such a fence as soon as any part went up. These warrior tribes fought the British in the 1930s under a red flag with "Allahu Akbar" ("God is the greatest") written on it.
Osama bin Laden sees himself as a world figure, rather a global liberator of the oppressed. ISI may see a vital Pakistani interest in getting the U.S. and NATO out of Afghanistan, and restoring the status quo ante of a Pakistani protectorate. But bin Laden is more interested in an Islamist caliphate whose cornerstones would be a post-Musharraf Pakistan and a post-monarchial Saudi Arabia controlling a third of the world's oil supplies.
Mr. Musharraf's decision to let his foreign minister meet his Israeli opposite number just before the Pakistani president addressed a major Jewish conference in New York was understandably very controversial for the Muslim world's only nuclear power. Little understood was Mr. Musharraf's motivation behind what critics called a "foolhardy gesture."
His motivation was to deflect a U.S. request to join coalition forces in Iraq with a contingent of Pakistani soldiers. If Mr. Musharraf acquiesced, it would be only to guard Iraqi holy sites.
Arnaud de Borchgrave is editor at large of The Washington Times and of United Press International.
The media will spin anything to say that the war on terror is a failure, and maybe the public will believe them. But in the end, we will all be safer for it.
Nice for the UPI team to remain neutral - just so long as they get their interview.
if we got Zarqawi tomorrow - it would be a 24 hour story. and as soon as some jihadi blew themselves up at a coffee shop someplace - the MSM would just say "see, the insurgency is as strong as ever". don't get me wrong, I want Zarqawi dead too, but politically there is no comparison.
The writers comments and speculation in this article are so ill contrived it isn't even worth discussing - Their silly suggestion that they know he (UBL) has a " portable dialysis machine" is laughable -
This is a silly/phony MSM driven falsehood regarding UBL (just as the fake rapes the MSM shouted about supposedly taking place in the SuperDome have proved to be) - UBL does not need a dialysis machine - OGA's long ago (late 90's) dispelled that rumor).
As for the ISI knowing where UBL is - Yep, they do as much as we do - He is in the autonomous Afghan / Pak / India / China border region!! - And they don't have a chance in hell of locating him on their own -
Again, the notion that the ISI (or Pak Gov't) could put guns on UBL in a short period of time is absurd -
Does the ISI have some al Qeade sympathizers - They most certainly do - Does that in turn mean they are directly supporting UBL on the run (of course not) - Does that mean those sympathizers could catch UBL if they wanted to? (of course not!).
The region UBL is eking out a survival in is autonomous from not only the Pak Gov't but from the ISI as well (to a large extent).
The ISI has a long history of not being able to operate in the tribal regions of Pakistan - Operate in any coherent / effective way that is - (not just since UBL has been on the run - long before)
Do we want the Pak military to do more? Yes! (We also want about every other ally to do more as well, and most aren't).
But again, the notion that if Musharraf really wanted he could get UBL or Zawahiri is just ridiculous - And those speculating that don't have a clue about how this hunt is going -
There are reasons Mr. Goss knows the general region UBL is in?? - There are reasons after around April 2002, the CIC and SecDef were aware that UBL was indeed alive and not dead (as possibly assumed). There are reasons we wish the Pak military would do more (but at the same time understand they probably couldn't catch UBL on there own).
But you have to read between the lines some to see the real facts -
Just had to ping ya. ;-0
I think they know who he is, but I really don't think they know who he really is.
The average American isn't dirt stupid, they watch alittle TV, they read a little of the newspaper, and after 2 years of daily reports of Zarqawi suicide bombings, beheadings, and attacks I think they know his name and know he is the leader of the insurgency.
But, I think thats where they info about Zarqawi ends. I don't think they understand the depth of Zarqawi's evil, what his plans are, and how far his network goes.
The average American sees him only as an Iraq problem I believe, which can best be sumed up by an NPR caller to Bill Kristal who said he suppored the war against Saddam, but now we have a civil war there and it isn't our buisness to interfer "if Zarqawi is the strongest and wins it is none of our buisness, its his country".
I think that shows where the US public is at when it comes to Zarqawi. They know about him, but they really don't know about him.
he simply can't be in a location with alot of activity associated with it - that is visible from the air or satellite recon. there can't be a large contingent of people, alot of coming and going of people and supplies to an otherwise remote area. he has to be living as part of a regular family, with a small contingent of people around him, so as not to attract attention.
Wrong! - The public will not believe them - Why do you allow the MSM to drag you around by the nose -
The MSM lied and spun the GWOT (the War in Iraq) all they could in 2003/4 - The one REAL poll was conducted in Nov-04 - The American public fully showed they didn't believe the MSM/DEM lies! - GWB won reelection with the most votes in history in one of the highest turnout elections in modern day history!(a feat the MSM told us was impossible..."high turnout was bad news for the GOP and great news for the Dem's - We all know how wrong that turned out to be).
The American public when clearly informed (or when paying attention....a la, prior to elections) fully supports GWB and the GWOT. That is a fact.
Stop allowing the dying MSM to try and spin you different.
but is he in a cave, or an area with some kind of natural vegetation cover? it can't be an desolate area with alot of "deliveries" of supplies and people moving to and from - that's way to easy to spot.
There are hundreds of small villages scattered among the tribal regions along the Pak/Afghan/China/India border -
Is he hiding in plain sight among one of these??
As for "that's way to easy to spot" - Not so, especially in the region of the World we are talking about - "eyes in the sky" are for sh*t more often then not when looking in this region.
The hunt continues. It is being conducted in a very deliberate manner. Once we get him the story of "how" we caught up with him will surprise a lot of people with how hard we worked at it. (that is, unless we get one of those one in a million HUMIT that pinpoints his exact whereabouts for us)
Then again, don't be surprised if the JAGs wave off any Op based off that Intel - (or have they already done that??).
I don't know if I would take it anywhere near that far. Catching Zarqawi would be a very big story
I actually do think enough people who actually pay attention to the situation collectively knows the importance of catching or killing Zarqawi. And, I do think it would be a very big news event. News reporters have been reporting on his near misses, catching or killing Zarqawi aid after aid, and his suicide bombs for two years know. So I actually think the media will be the biggest driver of the story.
But, it will also depend on when he is captured. I think they will make it bigger news and more positive if we get him after the December election for a number of reasons. Mostly because things will be too uncertain before then in Iraq in alot of ways.
Of course I think the US public will finally start figuring out who he is and what he wants over the next year. There is a new book coming out about Zarqawi in November, but most importantly when it comes to the average joe there is a book and movie coming out called "No True Glory" starring Harrison Ford about the Battle of Fallujah.
Of course Bin Laden also told Zarqawi to carry out an attack in Europe bigger then 911, if he pulls that off, Z-man knows he will achieve total worldwide notariaty. But, I don't think he is going to do it until after the December elections if there is no civil war, because such an attack on Europe would endanger worldwide opposition to the US presence in Iraq and could even get Europe involved in the war.
That's what befuddles me.
They supposedly spent more than a year in negotiations to make the trip. They go through harrowing experiences just passing through checkpoints. Then, when their journey finally takes them to a point where they have to get on foot and hike trails (which would indicate they were close to their destination), they get "cold feet" or cowardly and abandon their 1-year + mission altogether.
Doesn't make sense to me. If you go through all that trouble and risk, why not complete your mission and meet the bastard?
Guerrilla wars are all about "symbolism". Targets are selected for their "symbolic" value, to make a political point. It's politics with guns & bombs. To defeat such an opponent you need to operate on that level as well.
Maybe he is a burka clad woman!
Thank you! That's how I feel about it also. Most people say we shouldn't "stoop to their level." I say, you fight fire with fire. You do whatever it takes to get it done. When your enemy gets mean, you get meaner. Everything else is BS.
That would be the Nightmare scenario if Musharraf fell out of power now. Remember: Paks have the bomb. China is their ally. India is their foe. About half of Pakistan support OBL. If Musharref falls, the first question on everyone's mind will be, "who has the nukes?" Mushararraf has them now; if OBL or an al-Quaeda friendly ally got them, ALL bets are off. WW3 (or 4).
How's that again? Status quo ante what? The ISI doesn't control the Pashtuns and never did - rather the reverse, IMHO.
The whole thing is silly. If the SOB lives to be 120 I'd still want his sorry, wrinkled ass dragged out of his hole and his brains scattered on the rocks with a .45. If anyone breathing air on this earth thinks we're going to give up before that happens they know nothing of Americans.
She's probably right.
Glad for your inquisitive posts. de Borchgrave is unreliable. He's against the War in Iraq, mostly, so far as I can tell, for the old alliance with Saudi Arabia. Certainly, there's much to be said about that devil's bargain, but why in the hell is he out there rationalizing an even more insidious bargain with Pakistan?
He's angling for a story and a moral, and since he's chosen both before the fact, the facts don't line up.
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