Posted on 09/28/2005 6:27:13 PM PDT by blam
Arctic ice cap 'will disappear within the century'
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
(Filed: 29/09/2005)
The Arctic ice cap is on track to disappear within a century, according to a study published yesterday.
The satellite survey by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), and the space agency Nasa reveals that for the fourth consecutive year there has been "a stunning reduction" in Arctic sea ice at the end of the northern summer, placing species such as polar bears at risk.
The reduction in ice levels places Arctic wildlife at risk
The survey recorded the lowest sea-ice extent yet seen - 2.06 million square miles on Sept 19 - 20 per cent below the mean average September sea-ice extent from 1978 to 2001.
That is the equivalent of 500,000 square miles - an area about twice the size of Texas.
This year "will almost certainly surpass 2002 as the lowest amount of ice cover in more than a century", said Julienne Stroeve, of the Centre. If current rates of decline in sea ice continue, the summertime Arctic could be ice-free well before the end of this century.
A recent assessment of trends throughout the past century indicates that the current decline also exceeds past low ice periods in the 1930s and 1940s.
From 1979 until 2001, the rate of September decline was slightly more than 6.5 per cent a decade. In 2002, the trend steepened to 7.3 per cent and is now approximately 8 per cent.
Walt Meier, of NSIDC, said: "Having four years in a row with such low ice extents has never been seen before in the satellite record. It indicates a downward trend, not just a short-term anomaly."
Cooler winter temperatures allow the sea ice to "rebound" after summer melting. But with the exception of May 2005, every month since December 2004 has set a new record low ice extent for that month. The winter recovery of sea ice extent in the 2004-05 season was also the smallest observed by satellites.
"Even if sea ice retreated a lot one summer, it would make a comeback the following winter, when temperatures fall well below freezing," said Florence Fetterer, of NSIDC. "But in the winter of 2004-05, sea ice didn't approach the previous wintertime level."
Compared to the past half century, average surface air temperatures from January until August 2005, were up to 3C (5.4F) warmer than average across most of the Arctic Ocean. Since 2002, satellite records have also revealed that springtime melting is beginning unusually early north of Alaska and Siberia.
This summer, the Northwest Passage was open except for a 60-mile swath of scattered ice floes, a far cry from earlier centuries when expeditions were lost as their crews tried to beat through thick ice. The Northeast Passage, north of the Siberian coast, was ice-free from Aug 15 until Sept 28.
The Arctic may be caught in a feedback loop caused by global warming. As sea ice melts there is less to reflect the sun's radiation back into space and experts fear that the downward trend is reaching a point from which the ice will not recover.
"The elusive NW Passage will be found. "
Cool, we can run those cargo containers from Japan directly to the East coast.
The Brits have global warming on the brain. They need to shut up and get bikinis.
Thanks for the ping!
We lived in the snowbelt south of Lake Ontario and we moved. The only thing I'll miss about it is watching it snow 5" an hour. There's nothing quite like it. In Jan '04 we had 11 FEET of snow. It made me really glad that it was our last winter there.
Walt Meier, of NSIDC, said: "Having four years in a row with such low ice extents has never been seen before in the satellite record. It indicates a downward trend, not just a short-term anomaly."
In climate prediction land I would say that 4 years is rather short term, especially when compared to say, 4 BILLION. Now he's done it... we're gonna have 4 years in a row with an upward trend in increased ice extent. Is this guy supposed to be smart?
Doomed.....again.
LVM
Probably, we've got lots of experience drilling in marshes and bogs.
Actually, if this holds up, it could be a precursor to the next ice age. There is some evidence that during an ice age, the arctic ocean is relatively free of ice and that clearing , caused by a long term warming trend, might be the trigger for ice age, which seem to come on rather quickly, at least in geological terms. I remember reading about this well before anyone used the term "Global Warming", at least in the sense that it was something caused by mankind. This sort of thing has happened before, when mankind was a mere pimple on the face of the earth, and likely it will happen again, maybe soon.
More likely it's the new Atlantis, or a coastal marsh. The sea level doesn't need to rise much to inundate most of the Florida peninsula, and a good chuck of gulf coast, from Key West to Merida (Mexico) (IOW all of it). That whole coast is very shallow, as is the southern portion of the eastern seaboard. OTOH, the coastal plain in California is so thin in most places as to be nearly nonexistent. For example, Orlando is only 106 feet above sea level (city center).
That's true. but the Greenland portion of the artic ice cap is not floating. Is it melting as well?
However if a new ice age results from the effect of a clear arctic ocean, the increase in the snow/ice pack would decrease sea level. We might need the extra land, as all the Canucks, Russians, Finns, et. al. flee the ice.
Depends on how long you wait. When it's happened before the ice age, and the open arctic ocean, lasted for a good long time.
From 21st Century Science and Technology.:
Our current understanding of the long-term climate cycles shows that for the past 800,000 years, periods of approximately 100,000 years’ duration, called Ice Ages, have been interrupted by periods of approximately 10,000 years, known as Interglacials. (We are now about 10,500 years into the present Interglacial.)
So get out your long johns and hunker down. Fortunately with the increase in CO2 (Green house gas) there should be plenty of wood to burn.
Based on the historical record, it is. Maybe soon, maybe in few thousand years (At most!).
Good! It will be easier to ship stuff between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean via the Arctic Ocean.
Good riddance.
All right, who let Ted Kennedy and Michael Moore do cannon balls off Teddy's boat anchored off Martha's Vineyard?
The ice age cycle, at least the last 8, is about 110,000 years. With only 10,000 of that being non-ice age or interglacial. And we're overdue by about 500 years.
Thanks for the laugh. I was reading posts, in a thread about Delay, and getting steamed.
Thanks. This one had a black beak. The dog lets the gray jays hop all over the porch, he even sets out food for them. But not the magpie, not 'family'.
Nope. Arctic ice floats. Just as the liquid level in your glass of ice water doesn't change as the ice melts, the liquid level in the oceans won't change in response to melting Arctic ice.
There is global warming on the ground this morning. Not quite an inch of it. Perhaps another inch today, perhaps another inch tonight. At this rate there will be 20 feet of global warming on the ground by next May, which is when it melts.
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