have you really read much of his work?A lot of articles, none of the books.
I'm familiar with the barn and bullseye parable.
here he is asking about some probabilities with no independent specification.
Wouldn't the burden of proof be on Matzke to show the probabilities, which critics would then either verify or demonstrate as false?
one can't ask only about the probability of some specific sequence of changes but must rather ask about all the conceivable evolutionary pathways that could give the result. The man is a mathematician, he knows his question is misleading.
If you refer to his refutation of Matzke, then it is entirely appropriate that the calculation of probabilities would be exclusively for the proposed pathway undergoing discussion. If the probability for that specific pathway is absurd, that would be a demerit against it, but wouldn't mean that another conceivable pathway had also been refuted. That specific probability wouldn't apply to all conceivable evolutionary pathways.
Nice arguments.
I haven't followed every one of the multitude of links that were pumped out as proof of both sides, but I did follow a few.
One that got my attention.
First the "For Dummies" overview of what's wrong with creationist Cambrian Explosion arguments. You should pay close attention to it.
I did pay close attention to it.
1. The Cambrian explosion was the seemingly sudden appearance of a variety of complex animals about 540 million years ago (Mya), but it was not the origin of complex life.....
The argument was not that it was the origin of complex life, it was that the explosion of species in parallel is not consistent with the stated mechanism of mutation and selection.
2. There are transitional fossils within the Cambrian explosion fossils. For example, there are lobopods (basically worms with legs) which are intermediate between arthropods and worms (Conway Morris 1998).
There
may be transitional fossils. For instance, if one did not know how frogs mature, then upon finding tadpole and young frog fossils, one might believe they found transitional fossils. Same for catepillar and butterfly. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but it
may have happened. I admit that I am ignorant of Conway Morris 1998, and this whole paragrah may be void. In fact, I am
not making the argument that there is no such thing as mutation or natural section. This argument only goes towards the strength of the proof offered.
On a side note, I'm not sure that a false dichotomy is not being used in saying that you must accept either ID or Darwin. There is no real conflict when accepting some tenets of both ID and Darwinism without accepting either whole cloth. An analogy: At one point in time computers were invented. They did not exist before then. After that time, incremental changes have been made to improve them. So there was an intellegent design followed by evolution (yes, all man-made, but it is only an analogy) Of course this is not a proof and is not intended to be, but does illustrate that an analogy of ID + mutation exists, and the ideas are not
always mutually exclusive.
3. Only some phyla appear in the Cambrian explosion. In particular, all plants postdate the Cambrian, and flowering plants, by far the dominant form of land life today, only appeared about 140 Mya (Brown 1999).
I didn't recall the argument being that all species of every life form appeared in the Cambrian explosion. Only that the parallelism is not indicative of the darwinian mechanism theorized.
4. The length of the Cambrian explosion is ambiguous and uncertain, but five to ten million years is a reasonable estimate; some say the explosion spans forty million years or more, starting about 553 million years ago. Even the shortest estimate of five million years is hardly sudden.
A good point. 5-10 million years is a long time.
- There are some plausible explanations for why diversification may have been relatively sudden:
- The evolution of active predators in the late Precambrian likely spurred the coevolution of hard parts on other animals. These hard parts fossilize much more easily than the previous soft-bodied animals, leading to many more fossils but not necessarily more animals.
- Early complex animals may have been nearly microscopic. Apparent fossil animals smaller than 0.2 mm have been found in the Doushantuo Formation, China, forty to fifty-five million years before the Cambrian (Chen et al. 2004). Much of the early evolution could have simply been too small to see.
- The earth was just coming out of a global ice age at the beginning of the Cambrian (Hoffman 1998; Kerr 2000). A "snowball earth" before the Cambrian explosion may have hindered development of complexity or kept populations down so that fossils would be too rare to expect to find today. The more favorable environment after the snowball earth would have opened new niches for life to evolve into.
- Hox genes, which control much of an animal's basic body plan, were likely first evolving around that time. Development of these genes might have just then allowed the raw materials for body plans to diversify (Carroll 1997).
- Atmospheric oxygen may have increased at the start of the Cambrian (Canfield and Teske 1996; Logan et al. 1995; Thomas 1997).
- Planktonic grazers began producing fecal pellets that fell to the bottom of the ocean rapidly, profoundly changing the ocean state, especially its oxygenation (Logan et al. 1995).
- Unusual amounts of phosphate were deposited in shallow seas at the start of the Cambrian (Cook and Shergold 1986; Lipps and Signor 1992).
- Cambrian life was still unlike almost everything alive today. Using number of cell types as a measure of complexity, we see that complexity has been increasing more or less constantly since the beginning of the Cambrian (Valentine et al. 1994).
- Major radiations of life forms have occurred at other times, too. One of the most extensive diversifications of life occurred in the Ordovician, for example (Miller 1997).
The
bold emphasis is mine. I keep reading that "ID is not scientific", and does not hold to rigorous testing. I think the evolution people who wish to hold ID to a rigid standard should hold themselves to the same standard.
It is fine to
believe a model is valid, but another to say it is, not only proven, but proves another to be false.
I think that a many of the ID people are not saying that "nothing of evolution theory is true", but rather that it is being taught in schools as totally proven, and explaining all parts of all creatures.
From what I have seen, there are portions of evolutionary theory that simply fail - primarily at the origin of life - in much the same way as physics fails at the beginning of the universe. Darwin advocates argue that Darwinism does not claim to explain the origin of life, and have quoted Darwing saying the same.
Despite those claims, when I was in school we were told that the ocean contained numerous compounds produced from volcanic action and general diffusion from the chemical soup of an atmosphere that existed at the time, lightning struck and voila, life began.
There are no fewer arguments based on faith that the Darwinian model works in describing mechanisms for the evolution of a numerous complex systems from a few stray amino acids hit by a spark than there are in ID. The "it took millions of years" explanation requires faith. A chemically, kenetically and themodynamically sound pathway to these molecular systems would go a long way towards bolstering the argument.
I'm not saying "because I don't know the specific mechanism, it doesn't exist", but rather "because you have not shown the specific mechanism, it is not proven". There is a big difference. Kind of like the difference between a theory and a law.
"Let's rule out supernatural."
Sounds good, but let's define it first. And let's start here:
We generally know living things from dead ones. In most cases it is pretty obvious. So what is life, exactly? What then makes one person living and another dead? What has the living person got, that the dead one does not? If we knew, then we could just go dig up Thomas Jefferson, put it back in him, and ask him to clarify for our courts what they really meant in the first and second amendments.
The whole evolution vs ID thing is about life. So, before we contend that this or that concept is a flying spagetti monster, let's show that we know what is natural and what is supernatural.
Before I summarily dismiss someone's idea as stupid, I consider that within a very finite volume of space, in this tissue of which I am made, I carry a model of the universe that extends millions of light years, and a reality that defies us to understand it completely.
I have my models for things. Some work really well. Some have to be tweaked to work well. Some only give rough approximations. I'm not against science. I'm using it to type this rather lengthy post. I am happy to admit the shortcomings in my models. By identifying and understanding the flaws, I can try to make a better model. By claiming that there are no flaws, I delude myself.