I agree 100%. My suspicion that this may be true was strengthened by an article in Human Events several months ago about how a significant number of votes for socialist and communist candidates in the 20's started the Democrat party down their current path.
GovernmentShrinker: Neither of these is presently realistic. The vast majority of American voters are addicted to one or more federal handout programs, and vote accordingly.
We are in real trouble if this is true. However, it doesn't take a majority to get the point across. Just enough votes to show that actually following conservative principles is necessary to get elected. You don't waste your vote by voting for a conservative third party candidate instead of a Republican. You instead make it clear that conservative principles are necessary to get your vote. When you vote for a Republican your vote is more likely to be interpreted to support "big tent (i.e., socialist)" Republican policies.
If you "get a point across" by voting for a non-viable third party candidate, thus ensuring the election of a socialist Democrat, you're hardly making progress. First we need to spread the underlying principles, and wean people -- starting with "conservatives" off the government teat. A couple of weeks ago I was having a discussion on FR with a mother who claims to be supporting 2 children and her elderly mother on less than $40,000/year. She's very proud of herself for not accepting "public assistance", yet her older child (and soon her younger one too) attends public school, for which the cost to the taxpayer is usually $15,000+ per child per year. If her children go to college, they'll get federal government grants and subsidized loans, to attend colleges in which some academic departments receive additional federal grant money. Her elderly mother, who she claims to be supporting, is almost certainly getting Medicare benefits in excess of anything the mother and daughter combined have ever paid into the system. And yet she confidently announces on FR that she's self-sufficient (and at least a couple of other posters saw no problem with that claim). Do you really think she'd vote for a candidate who would cut off federal funding to Medicare and public schools and college student financial aid programs?