Posted on 09/25/2005 10:59:37 PM PDT by Aussiebabe
Monday September 26, 02:51 PM
East coast 'vulnerable' to storms
Australia's east coast is highly vulnerable to catastrophic storms such as hurricanes Katrina and Rita that have devoured the US Gulf Coast, warns a weather forecaster.
Bureau of Meteorology severe weather senior forecaster Jeff Callaghan says residents along the eastern seaboard have become too complacent about the threat of tropical cyclones because of a prolonged, drought-ravaged period.
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Mr Callaghan said an el Nino-dominated period in Australia from 1977 had pushed tropical cyclonic activity eastward towards Fiji and surrounding islands.
However, the dry spell could morph into cyclonic activity without warning, mirroring storms and flooding that developed in the Pacific Ocean and decimated the east coast between the 1870s and 1920s, and from 1949 to 1976.
"It doesn't hit (Australia's) north coast or the western coast - it's a Pacific Ocean phenomenon rather than affecting the Indian Ocean ... and the south is too cold," Mr Callaghan said.
"We have to be careful and prepare because it could change and go back to the other way - we have been in an el Nino-dominated period for a while now so the longer it goes the more likely it is going to change.
"Look at what is happening overseas - America went through a drier period over the last century."
Mr Callaghan said it was virtually impossible to predict when a la Nina period - one marred by storms and flooding - would descend until "it was happening".
He said it was also difficult to determine whether extreme weather in the US was directly linked to global warming because it had been occurring for centuries.
"People say the weather is getting worse because of global warming but we have had worse in the past - we have had categories three, four and five (cyclones) on the east coast before 1976," Mr Callaghan said.
"And these cyclones would be more catastrophic now because populations have exploded during this el-Nino period.
"In 1899 there was a cyclone in Bathurst Bay north of Cooktown that killed between 300 and 400 people and in 1918 about 100 people were killed in Mackay and Innisfail.
"In 1954 there was a really bad cyclone on the Gold Coast, when it was just a few small villages, and northern NSW and about 25 to 30 people died."
Residents of the US Gulf Coast on Monday returned to pick up the pieces after powerful Hurricane Rita ripped into Texas and Louisiana.
But category-three Rita failed to match the devastating force of Hurricane Katrina, a category-four storm which killed more than 1,000 people and inundated New Orleans after it struck the region on August 29.
Wow, you really changed the title from "East coast 'vulnerable' to storms"
Sorry, this was the first time I ever posted an article. Didn't know I had to post the actual title.
To prevent duplication, please do not alter the heading. Thanks.
Actually I'm new and not sure of the rules on titles... my comment was more that the original title had a different meaning than the one you chose.
Thanks, I see how to do it now.
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