a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south of Port O'Connor Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain...and from south of Sargent Texas to Port O'Connor Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Hurricane center located near 29.9n 93.9w at 24/0900z position accurate within 15 nm present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 kt estimated minimum central pressure 937 mb eye diameter 25 nm Max sustained winds 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. 64 kt....... 75ne 60se 40sw 60nw. 50 kt.......120ne 100se 80sw 90nw. 34 kt.......180ne 150se 120sw 120nw. 12 ft seas..375ne 300se 275sw 0nw. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant. Repeat...center located near 29.9n 93.9w at 24/0900z at 24/0600z center was located near 29.4n 93.5w forecast valid 24/1800z 30.9n 94.3w...inland Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt. 64 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw. 50 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw. 34 kt...100ne 120se 90sw 100nw. Forecast valid 25/0600z 32.3n 94.5w...inland Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt. 34 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 60nw. Forecast valid 25/1800z 33.0n 94.0w...inland Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt. Forecast valid 26/0600z 33.5n 93.5w...inland Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt. Forecast valid 27/0600z 33.5n 93.5w...inland Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt. Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day outlook valid 28/0600z 33.5n 93.5w...inland Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt. Outlook valid 29/0600z 33.5n 93.5w...dissipating Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt. Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 29.9n 93.9w next advisory at 24/1500z forecaster Beven $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005
DISCUSSION
FIRST EXPERIENCE IN A HURRICANE FOR THIS ILLINOIS BOY. PARTICULARLY MISSING HOME RIGHT NOW. SOUNDS AS IF A 747 IS SITTING UPON THE ROOF REVVING ITS ENGINES. WIND EQUIPMENT HAS FAILED HERE BUT BELIEVE WE ARE NOW SEEING WINDS POSSIBLY IN A 70 TO 90 KNOT RANGE HERE AT LAKE CHARLES. NOS GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS REPORTED A GUST TO 112 MPH...AND THEN FAILED. ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED. JUST HAD A BRIEF COMMS FAILURE BUT NOW BACK UP. UNFORTUNATELY...SINCE WE ARE NOW IN A DIAL BACKUP MODE...WILL BE UNABLE TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WILL TURN THIS RESPONSIBILITY OVER TO OUR CURRENT BACKUP OFFICE SAN ANTONIO. WE WILL MAINTAIN SHORT-TERM RESPONSIBILITY...NOWCASTS...HLS'S...TAFS...WARNINGS...AS LONG AS WE HOLD TOGETHER.
RITA CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST CAMERON PARISH ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK...AND RIGHT ON WITH NHC FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM PROGGED TO CONTINUE GENERAL MOTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.
INPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LATEST MODELS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL NOT STALL ACROSS REGION...THUS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. JUST A BIT OF GOOD NEWS TO END ON.