Mornin'/evening. The track based on the last 2 vortex reports (eye fixes at 3:31 pm and 6:03 pm put the motion over that 2 1/2 hours at 322 degrees and 11 mph. That 6:03 position put it 103 miles and a 326 degree course out Sabine Pass. Extrapolating, that, that should put landfall about 3:30 am 15 miles west of Sabine Pass.
That's the problem with forecasting, getting the curves right.
A linear track from the 1600 and 2000 plots put it directly over Sabine Pass. That 2000 plot is also 6 miles north east of the 1600 track (today) and 12 miles north of yesterday's 1700 track.
It seems to be hooking right, making Orange and Lake Charles more likely, with Port Arthur less likely.
I'm not changing estimated landfall yet, but wanted to raise the possibility.
This may just be a big wobble, and then again Heraldo might end up foiled again. Hope we don't see him saying PA dodged a bullet in the morning, while Lake Charles gets wiped out in secret.