[commish]

So does that mean that it could strengthen back to a 5 by landfall?

Very good chance Rita makes it back to CAT 5 -- she has a very warm eddy to cross, and her pressure is still very supportive of a CAT 5. HOWEVER, as she approaches landfall there is a good chance that the slightly cooler coastal waters, and interaction with land will weaken her back down to a CAT 4.

That said, her track will have a very big effect on her end strength. The waters off Galveston Bay are the warmest in the area -- if she tracks there she could retain much of her strength. A northerly turn toward Port Arthur/SW LA would get her into slightly cooler coastal waters.

[Tuxedo]

Not sure the waters are all that cooler at the coast. It has been abnormally HOT in south Texas for late September. In the 95-105 degree range all week.

[fishntex]

"Very good chance Rita makes it back to CAT 5 -- she has a very warm eddy to cross, and her pressure is still very supportive of a CAT 5. HOWEVER, as she approaches landfall there is a good chance that the slightly cooler coastal waters, and interaction with land will weaken her back down to a CAT 4."

Holy cow. "weakening to a 4", That does not sound good.

I have a friend in west Houston that tried to leave at 2:30am today. He got 16 miles in 12 hours and it took half a tank of gas so they turned around and went back home. Fortunately that had bought supplies when Rita was in the keys.