Janet,
Is the shear going to push this down to a 3 by landfall?
As the storm approaches landfall in the NW corner of the GOM, land will be interacting with the storm on two sides. This would normally inhibit the storm a bit. However, the storm surge will be extreme, regardless of any last minute wind speed decline. The churned up water ahead of the storm has to go somewhere.
yes if it keeps up...the keyword is IF