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To: Wthrman13
I don't think so.

UofW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclone (W ATL shear) page

This shear is NOT a result of her outflow. The shear is direcly due to the 200mb level high that is SSE of Rita a/o 1800Z, and is quite evident on 200mb contour charts.

The low on the surface in tandem with an upper level high form what is known as a warm core low. This is in direct contrast to what is over Mexico presently, i.e, a high on the surface with an upper level low above it (cold core high). Two other entities also exist (cold core lows, and warm core highs), but are immaterial to this situation.

Aside from the obvious difference between the cold core high over Mexico, and the warm core low known as Rita, Rita's high pressure cap is offset somewhat. It is the high pressure influence of this cap that is essentially squirting Rita forward. Surface, mid and high level winds that she encounters as she moves forward act as a rudder. However, in Rita's case at present, this upper level high is hindering intensification of the storm's core.

2,829 posted on 09/22/2005 4:22:38 PM PDT by raygun
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To: raygun
"Aside from the obvious difference between the cold core high over Mexico"

So in other words to tame this babe, she needs cold water thrown on her...hmmmm! I heard on the WC that what's slowing her up is the High Pressure from Texas, unfortunately the HP is suppose to recede backwards towards the south into NM by tomorrow! Once the HP reverses track RITA will hit with a vengeance inland!
2,847 posted on 09/22/2005 4:29:02 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: raygun

Lol, I don't need a lecture about cold core lows/highs, warm core lows/highs, etc.. I know what they are, I'm a meteorologist with a B.S. and and M.S. :).

Anyway, you may be correct about the upper-level high being displaced a bit SE of the core of the storm, but I thought you were referring to the large shear over the northern 2/3 of the storm, which is indeed due to its outflow. There are indeed some signs of some light southerly shear over the core of the storm, but I really doubt that this is what is hindering Rita significantly right now. What clearly is the overriding factor is the final stages of an ERC which has been VERY evident in recon reports, microwave imagery, and even IR satellite. The inner eye should be eroded away fairly soon now, and we should start to see the outer eyewall take over. This process began over 12 hours ago, and was directly correlated with the steady decrease in the wind speeds, and a modest increase in central pressure.

Also, it's the steering from the deep layer ridge to the north of Rita that is causing it to move on its current course, not the offset of the high pressure over it: that's not so much of a steering influence, but rather a shearing influence, if any.


3,033 posted on 09/22/2005 5:23:57 PM PDT by Wthrman13
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