Intermediate Advisory 19a is up -
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 19a
Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005
...Potentially catastrophic category five Rita over the central Gulf
of Mexico...slight weakening is anticipated today.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast
from Port Mansfield Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A
Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the
Hurricane Watch area later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the
Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area during the next
24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the
Hurricane Watch area...from east of Intracoastal City to Morgan City
Louisiana...and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 7 am CDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 25.2 north...longitude 88.3 west or about 490 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 595 miles east-southeast of
Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher
gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slow weakening trend
is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the coast late Friday or
early Saturday as a major hurricane...at least category three.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by a hurricane
hunter aircraft was 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the
Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina.
Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas tonight into
Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches from the
central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across southern Louisiana
...Including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves
inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches will be
possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma
during Saturday and Sunday.
Repeating the 7 am CDT position...25.2 N... 88.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...170
mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
