Weather Underground now is pushing it slightly north east of Galveston.
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Locked on 09/22/2005 3:40:46 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 09/21/2005 4:19:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I'll bet the Marriott doesn't take pets, though...
Oh damn is right. It's turning? Or are these POSSIBLE paths?
That graph looks like Rita is moving more N.E..towards NO.
I don't know *what* in the heck those are, but they aren't Rita -- several of the paths start down near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, which is nowhere *near* where Rita is, has been, or will be tracking.
See post #1464.
000 URNT12 KNHC 220739 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/07:14:30Z B. 24 deg 48 min N 087 deg 46 min W C. 700 mb 2208 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 225 deg 148 kt G. 134 deg 013 nm H. 899 mb I. 9 C/ 3047 m J. 31 C/ 3043 m K. -3 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C16 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 11 MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z STADIUM EFFECT VERY VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL
Major changes from the previous one with an eye-fix at 12:38 am CDT (1 hour 36 minutes prior):
- This represents a SE-to-NW run (previous was NE-to-SW run)
- Pressure up 1 mb to 899 mb
- Position change of 2 minutes north, 12 minutes west (pretty close to due west; roughly 280 degrees)
- Turbulence mention gone (dunno whether that's a good or bad sign)
Your right, that doesn't look like Rita's position.
000 WTNT33 KNHC 220832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 615 MILES... 990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$
Look, its a corrupt gif, pay no attention to it until they fix it.
Corrupt graphic files can do weird things with the information they display.
Back down to 897 - and holding steady at 175 mph. I was expecting a little weakening if the eyewall is in cycle...
if Rita has not peaked in intensity...it looks like it is pretty close to doing so. The latest central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 897 mb...which shows little change during the past 8 hr. The maximum flight-level winds so far are 165 kt in the NE eyewall...which is only slightly higher than the 161 kt observed yesterday afternoon. The aircraft data shows a increasingly strong outer wind maximum that is likely the start of a concentric eyewall cycle...and satellite imagery since the end of the eclipse period shows warming of the convection near the center. Based on all of this...the initial intensity remains 150 kt.
Rita has turned a little to the right during the past several hours and the initial motion is now 285/8. Rawinsonde data shows a strong mid-level ridge centered over Texas. Large-scale models forecast this ridge to shift eastward into the southeastern states and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hr. This should allow Rita to turn more northward with time. The track guidance is now clustered around a landfall between the Sabine River and Matagorda Texas in 48-60 hr...with a net eastward shift of the guidance since the last package. The new forecast track is also shifted eastward about 30 N mi...calling for landfall near the Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Bay. However...it should be noted that the new track is along the left or west side of the envelope of guidance.
The intensity forecast remains somewhat problematic. First...the more northerly track will likely keep Rita over The Loop current longer than previously expected...so the effect of lower ocean heat content may be somewhat less than previously expected in the first 24 hr or so. Second...the GFS and ship models forecast significant shear over Rita after 24 hr...which results in SHIPS calling for significant weakening. Shear analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show about 12 kt of southerly shear caused by an upper-level anticyclone east of Rita...and the large-scale models suggest this pattern will continue until landfall. However...the GFS and SHIPS may be overdoing the shear. Finally...there will be at least one and possible more concentric eyewall cycles before landfall. The intensity forecast is based on the premise that shear and reduced outflow will cause a gradual weakening... especially after Rita moves west of The Loop current in 24-36 hr. Superimposed on top of this will be fluctuations caused by concentric eyewall cycles. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast...calling for slow overall weakening but not as much as shown by SHIPS.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/0900z 24.9n 88.0w 150 kt 12hr VT 22/1800z 25.3n 89.3w 150 kt 24hr VT 23/0600z 26.1n 91.1w 145 kt 36hr VT 23/1800z 27.2n 92.8w 140 kt 48hr VT 24/0600z 28.8n 94.3w 130 kt 72hr VT 25/0600z 32.0n 95.5w 65 kt...inland 96hr VT 26/0600z 34.1n 95.0w 30 kt...inland 120hr VT 27/0600z 34.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
$$
000
WTNT73 KNHC 220832
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.1N 91.1W 42 X X X 42 FREEPORT TX X 10 10 2 22
27.2N 92.8W 19 10 X X 29 PORT O CONNOR TX X 8 10 2 20
28.8N 94.3W X 16 7 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 4 9 2 15
PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X 3 4 2 9
MOBILE AL X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X 1 1 2 4
GULFPORT MS X 1 4 4 9 GULF 28N 89W 11 3 1 1 16
BURAS LA 1 6 4 2 13 GULF 28N 91W 17 6 1 X 24
NEW ORLEANS LA X 4 7 2 13 GULF 28N 93W 8 17 1 X 26
NEW IBERIA LA X 7 8 3 18 GULF 28N 95W 1 17 4 1 23
PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 11 3 21 GULF 27N 96W X 13 4 1 18
GALVESTON TX X 11 9 2 22 GULF 25N 96W X 5 2 2 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
Thanks for the update, Steve.
Model tracks as shown on Houston TV channel 2 just showed more slippage to the east/north.
That 48-hour update puts Rita about 45 miles southeast of Galveston (the star at the link) at 1 am Saturday.
Weather Underground now is pushing it slightly north east of Galveston.
Time to leave.
I am heading to bed. Hopefully it will look better when I wake up.
Yep. NHC's 3-day track shows the center of the cone just east of Galveston Bay.
Maybe, maybe not......(just trying to help you avoid that *lovely* ride out of TX & into NM)
Also maybe local animal shelters could help you out.
It's sure been nice to see that TX is so 'pet friendly' during a disaster......& so much better organized to evac their people.
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