I'm interested in your analysis. I suspect there are a lot of registered Democrats who are leftover from the days when a significant number of Dems were conservative. These voters just never bothered to change parties.
I'm not sure I agree that Democratic Senators are too frightened of their own voters to filibuster Roberts. They won't filibuster because the Republicans are united for him, which looks bad; Roberts hasn't given them enough reason through the years to pin him down ideologically; and finally Roberts doesn't tip the balance of the court because he's replacing Rehnquist.
I would not have picked Roberts, but Bush's political instincts were tuned to perfection here. Roberts has spent his life saying as little as possible about anything. This makes him perfect. Bush's enemies can't get a read on him, and his friends can't complain too much about anything.
Of course we'll all know in another year or two whether this was a good choice or a mar on his legacy.
Perhaps they didn't change party registration because they voted for Clinton in 1992, 1996, and Gore in 2000.
The full time Bush Staffer assigned to run the rally was really angry with me for not turning down a single Democrat that asked for tickets. Our questions had determined that most of those Democrats had not voted for Bush, Dole or Bush 41. Later analysis comparing votes in individual precincts from 1980 through 2004 confirmed these people were registered Democrats that had voted nearly straight Democratic tickets for over 20 years.
When it was revealed that I had not turned down any Democrat applicants for tickets, the Bush staffer was afraid that at least some of them were ringers. He was very afraid they would stand up, scream. shout, and demonstrate during the rally.If they did he was sure the media would lead with that story on all the major newscasts for at least a 24 hour cycle. All the major and minor media were at the rally. They would get very damaging video to air. The staffer was certain with that with so many Democrats in attendance, there would be some who would group together to scream, shout, and denigrate the president in order to attract media attention to their opposition;
The staffer was concerned enough to warn President Bush that he might be heckled by at least some of the Democrats. The first thing Dubya did when he walked to the microphone was say he had been told there were lots of Democrats in attendance. He welcomed them and thanked them for coming. That way if they were nasty they might look bad in at least some people's eyes.
The response was applause, cheers and chants of Four More Years. At that point I looked at the Bush staffer who was also on the stage. He was looking at me and giving me a thumbs up.
One of the reasons we think Kerry refused to concede before late morning on the day after the election, is his Campaign firmly believed that they had at least 250 thousand more Democratic votes in Ohio than they actually got. At 10 pm on election night the Kerry campaign was telling Susan Estridge on Fox that they had at least 250 thousand uncounted Democratic votes in Ohio and Kerry should win both Ohio and the presidency.
Since the election the Democrats undoubtedly have done what the Republicans have done. They studied returns at the precinct level to determine what really took place. They must have checked the numbers from these precincts from 1980 up to and including the 2004 election. It does not take a rocket scientist looking at those precinct returns to determine that Rove was right to go after traditional Democrats. The numbers prove more than the winning margin came from Democrats who voted for a Republican President for the first time. The actual returns prove it. The only question is why?
The reasons for jumping tradition to vote for President Bush were what the Democrats are calling family values.. and are claiming to have lots of. Even Howard Dean has it figured out. That leads me to believe that the Democrats did just as good a study of what happened as the Republicans did. What they didn't do to Roberts tends to support my believe as to why the Democrats are not playing hard ball.
You note the transition of conservatives from the Democratic Party to the Republican. There may be a sort of transition taking place in Ohio. That is what the Democrats really fear. They know a transition took place 35 years ago in the South as Southern Democratic Conservatives moved first to sometimes voting for Republicans for president. Over time soutern Conservatives began casting straight Republican votes.
But that type of transition is at best in the early stages in Ohio and is just starting in Michigan. It may be moving north but slowly or it may be a different type of transition altogether. North of the Mason Dixon Line the transition appears to be based on moral values... not what we typically call a philosophy of government
The South is no longer in play. Ohio is... Both parties know something called moral values is at play. That explains the Democrats decision to not BORK Roberts.
One other point that needs to be made. The Democrats that voted for Bush in Ohio are not conservative by any typical definition. What they do believe is that what God did to Saddam And Gomorrah was the right thing to do.. They fear our degraded moral values may condem our nation to severe punishment.
Their religious beliefs trump their desire for social programs and a communal state that provides for all.
It gave President Bush Ohio and I think both parties know it. I am not sure anyone in the media understands. As usual the Media gurus are the last to know.