[janetjanet998]

698 WTNT43 KNHC 211447 TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS FURTHER...IF NECESSARY

[WoodstockCat]

jj,

How far out of the eye wall are hurricane force winds?
If it jogs south of Houston, what Category force winds will they be getting?

[dirtboy]

OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS.

Well, looks like you were correct, Janet, about the Dvorak scale.

Thanks for that early heads-up - my parents were thinking about not evacuating and I just called up and said it was probably at Cat 5 from the Dvorak estimates, and now they are packing up and will decide whether to leave tomorrow morning.

[SE Mom]

PER FOX as of now- there's a possibility this is already a Cat 5- about 140 knots...waiting for more data from NHC which is tough due to computer issues.