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To: WoodstockCat
"Can someone refresh me on which model was closest on Katrina 3 days out between : GFS,BAM,UKMET or GFDL?"

How about the NHC? (they combine them all for an average and are the most accurate imo)

Katrina:

Ps: I know thats not the question you asked but it the only model I put much stock in. Just showing you how accurate they were 3 days out on Katrina. ;)

1,449 posted on 09/21/2005 12:04:55 PM PDT by No Blue States (Fort Worth)
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To: No Blue States

The models had converged on that track about 16 hours before that point, IIRC.


1,470 posted on 09/21/2005 12:11:03 PM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: No Blue States

The top overall model for Katrina was indeed GUNA, which is an average of the UKMET, GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS.

The top individual model overall was the UKMET, though many were close behind.

The top performer for Katrina for 5 day forecasts was NOGAPS. The top performer for Katrina for 3 day forecasts was the BAMD and UKMET. (All the previous data actually automatically calculated by some software I have.)

The closest model to Katrina's actual landfall from precisely 3 days before landfall was the GUNA Consensus.


The current GUNA consensus for Rita is a landfall at East Matgorda Bay, a few miles east of the actual town of Matagorda, right over the little town of Gulf.


1,489 posted on 09/21/2005 12:15:50 PM PDT by Strategerist
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